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Model 1.2

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Avondale v Broadmeadow Magic

Avondale
1–2Full time
Broadmeadow Magic

Australian Championship · SAT 24 OCT · Avenger park

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 07:31
Avondale 1–2 Broadmeadow Magic AVONDALE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG4–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Avondale win92%
The market said76%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.794
The market’s Brier score1.414

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 19 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Avondale win at 92%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Avondale 92% before kick-off, 91% now. 0–0 · 91–6–3
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Avondale v Broadmeadow Magic
  4. 4′A goal for Broadmeadow Magic on 4′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 79–12–9
  5. 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Avondale 0–1 Broadmeadow Magic
  6. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Avondale win: 92% at kick-off, 79% now
  7. 5′We said Avondale at 92%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 78%. 0–1 · 78–12–9
  8. 14′We said Avondale at 92%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 74%. 0–1 · 74–15–11
  9. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Avondale win: 92% at kick-off, 72% now
  10. 20′Avondale score on 19′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 87–9–4
  11. 20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Avondale 1–1 Broadmeadow Magic
  12. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Avondale win: 92% at kick-off, 87% now
  13. 31′The goal count is tracking the 4.8 we expected. 1–1 · 84–12–4
  14. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Avondale win: 92% at kick-off, 82% now
  15. 40′We said Avondale at 92%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 80%. 1–1 · 80–15–5
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Avondale 1–1 Broadmeadow Magic
  17. 46′SECOND HALF Avondale 1–1 Broadmeadow Magic
  18. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Avondale win: 92% at kick-off, 72% now
  19. 58′We said Avondale at 92%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 68%. 1–1 · 68–26–6
  20. 62′We said Avondale at 92%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 1–1 · 64–29–6
  21. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Avondale win: 92% at kick-off, 62% now
  22. 67′We said Avondale at 92%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 58%. 1–1 · 58–35–6
  23. 70′We said Avondale at 92%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 54–40–6
  24. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Avondale win: 92% at kick-off, 52% now
  25. 73′We said Avondale at 92%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–45–6
  26. 76′We said Avondale at 92%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 43–51–6
  27. 76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Avondale win 47%)
  28. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Avondale win: 92% at kick-off, 41% now
  29. 78′We said Avondale at 92%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–56–5
  30. 80′We said Avondale at 92%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–61–5
  31. 80′Broadmeadow Magic find the net on 80′. 1–2. 1–2 · 7–27–66
  32. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Avondale 1–2 Broadmeadow Magic
  33. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Avondale win: 92% at kick-off, 7% now
  34. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Broadmeadow Magic win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 61%)
  35. 81′We said Avondale at 92%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 1–2 · 6–26–68
  36. 83′We said Avondale at 92%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–22–74
  37. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Avondale win: 92% at kick-off, 2% now
  38. FTFULL TIME Avondale 1–2 Broadmeadow Magic
  39. FTAvondale 1–2 Broadmeadow Magic · Avondale win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 4–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Avondale are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Avondale 92%, draw 6%, Broadmeadow Magic 3%. Over 2.5 goals 86%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Avondale v Broadmeadow MagicBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Avondale win92%
Draw6%
Broadmeadow Magic win3%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 05:00

RoundGroup stage · matchday 2

VenueAvenger park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Avondale

Broadmeadow Magic

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Australian Championship

Last match: 17 Oct · Australian Championship

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Australian Championship · group 2

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Avondale1+12
3Broadmeadow Magic1+12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · avondale winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
92% The market76%
Us92%
Market76%

We make Avondale a 92% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 4.1–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Avondale v Broadmeadow Magic4.07 – 0.71
Form · Australian Championship this season · since 16 OctW0 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L0
Table places · points 2 v 22 v 3
The market · Avondale win76% · ours 92%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
70%75%80%85%90%95% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 04:52
Our probability · Avondale win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 76% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Avondale win92%76%+16
Draw6%15%−9
Broadmeadow Magic win3%9%−6
Over 2.5 goals86%68%+18
Both teams to score50%52%−2
Over 1.5 goals95%85%+10
Over 3.5 goals70%49%+21
Avondale or draw97%91%+6
Avondale clean sheet49%––
Broadmeadow Magic clean sheet2%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 4–0 at 9.6%
0123450 1 3.3 2.5 2 7.0 4.9 3 9.4 6.7 2.4 4 9.6 6.8 2.4 5 7.8 5.5
under 2% 5% 12%+Avondale down, Broadmeadow Magic across0–5 goals a side shown (77.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Australian Championship this season · since 16 Oct

AVONDALE

D2–2

BROADMEADOW MAGIC

D0–0

The table

2026 · Australian Championship · group 2
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Wests APIA2+14
2Avondale1+12
3Broadmeadow Magic1+12
4Adelaide City2−31

The competition's standings before kick-off.