Adelaide City v Avondale prediction · Australian Championship

After 90 minutesGraded 16 Oct 12:01

Adelaide City 2–2 Avondale AVONDALE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Avondale win~~38%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.834

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.905

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 2–2, the score after 90 minutes. It was decided on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Avondale win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Avondale 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 37–25–38
1′KICK-OFF Adelaide City v Avondale
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Avondale win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Adelaide City 0–0 Avondale
46′SECOND HALF Adelaide City 0–0 Avondale
53′Adelaide City find the net on 53′. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–22–8
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Adelaide City 1–0 Avondale
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Avondale win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Adelaide City win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 22%)
55′We said Avondale at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–0 · 71–21–7
65′We said Avondale at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
66′A goal for Avondale on 66′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 23–53–24
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Adelaide City 1–1 Avondale
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Avondale win: 38% at kick-off, 24% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Adelaide City win 23%)
67′We said Avondale at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–54–23
68′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–1 · 22–55–22
70′Adelaide City score on 70′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 79–18–3
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Adelaide City 2–1 Avondale
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Avondale win: 38% at kick-off, 3% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Adelaide City win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 18%)
71′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 79–18–3
74′Avondale find the net on 74′. 2–2. 2–2 · 18–64–18
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Adelaide City 2–2 Avondale
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Avondale win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Adelaide City win 18%)
75′We said Avondale at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 2–2 · 17–65–18
75′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 17–65–18
79′We said Avondale at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–72–14
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Avondale win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
FTFULL TIME Adelaide City 2–2 Avondale
FTAdelaide City 2–2 Avondale after 90 minutes, as graded · Avondale win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Avondale just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Adelaide City 37%, draw 25%, Avondale 38%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Adelaide City v AvondaleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Adelaide City win37%

Draw25%

Avondale win38%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 09:30

RoundGroup stage · matchday 1

VenueAdelaide City Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Adelaide City

Avondale

35Days since last match27

Last match: 11 Sept · South Australia NPL

Last match: 19 Sept · Victoria NPL

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Adelaide City	0	0	0
4	Avondale	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · avondale winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 16 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

38% The market51%

Us38%

~~Market~~51%

We make Avondale a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Adelaide City v Avondale~~1.45 – 1.47

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~2 v 4

~~The market · Avondale win~~51% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Avondale win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Adelaide City win	37%	26%	+11
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Avondale win	38%	51%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	56%	57%	−1
Both teams to score	59%	58%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	33%	35%	−2
Adelaide City or draw	62%	49%	+13
Adelaide City clean sheet	23%	–	–
Avondale clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 5.8 7.6 5.8 2.8 1 7.5 11.9 8.4 4.1 2 5.7 8.3 6.1 3.0 3 2.8 4.0 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Adelaide City down, Avondale across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 408,379 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 16 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Adelaide City play in South Australia NPL, Avondale in Victoria NPL.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Adelaide City are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021.

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Adelaide City, 1.47 for Avondale. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Australian Championship this season

ADELAIDE CITY

No matches in our record yet.

AVONDALE

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wests APIA	0	0	0
2	Adelaide City	0	0	0
3	Broadmeadow Magic	0	0	0
4	Avondale	0	0	0

The competition's standings before kick-off.

Adelaide City v Avondale

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Adelaide City

Avondale

The game in numbers

League table

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Australian Championship this season

The table