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South Melbourne v Melbourne Victory

South Melbourne
1–1After penalties
Melbourne Victory

Australia Cup · SAT 10 OCT · AAMI Park

After 90 minutesGraded 10 Oct 13:08
South Melbourne 0–0 Melbourne Victory MELBOURNE VICTORY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Melbourne Victory win44%
The market said53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.803
The market’s Brier score0.896

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 0–0, the score after 90 minutes. It was 1–1 after extra time; South Melbourne won 4–3 on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 56 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Melbourne Victory win at 44%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF South Melbourne v Melbourne Victory
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Melbourne Victory was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 29–27–44
  4. 4′🟨 YELLOW · 4' South Melbourne
  5. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 42' South Melbourne
  6. 45′SECOND HALF South Melbourne 0–0 Melbourne Victory
  7. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' South Melbourne · On: P. Retre · Off: J. Eliopoulos
  8. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Melbourne Victory · On: G. May · Off: K. Jelacic
  9. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Melbourne Victory · On: D. Genreau · Off: M. Grimaldi
  10. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' J. Davidson · Melbourne Victory
  11. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' South Melbourne · On: M. Mikkola · Off: A. Cocks
  12. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Melbourne Victory · On: H. Sawyer · Off: X. Stella
  13. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' South Melbourne · On: H. Ramazani · Off: T. Giannakopoulos
  14. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Melbourne Victory
  15. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' South Melbourne · On: A. Mesourouni · Off: D. Yoo
  16. 94′⚽ GOAL · 94' South Melbourne 0–1 Melbourne Victory
  17. 94′⚽ GOAL · 95' South Melbourne 0–1 Melbourne Victory
  18. 95′SUBSTITUTION · 90' South Melbourne · On: A. Mesourouni · Off: D. Yoo
  19. 102′🟨 YELLOW · 102' Melbourne Victory
  20. 107′SUBSTITUTION · 105' Melbourne Victory · On: P. Ziereis · Off: Clarismario
  21. 107′SUBSTITUTION · 105' South Melbourne · On: J. Lackay · Off: J. Painter-Andrews
  22. 110′SUBSTITUTION · 105' South Melbourne · On: J. Swibel · Off: S. Pasquali
  23. 111′🟨 YELLOW · 111' Melbourne Victory
  24. 116′⚽ GOAL · 116' South Melbourne 1–1 Melbourne Victory · D. Genreau
  25. 116′⚽ GOAL · 116' South Melbourne 1–1 Melbourne Victory · M. Mikkola
  26. 120′🟨 YELLOW · 120' South Melbourne
  27. 120′⚽ GOAL · 124' South Melbourne 0–0 Melbourne Victory
  28. 120′PENALTY MISSED · 125' Melbourne Victory
  29. 122′🟨 YELLOW · 4' J. Eliopoulos · South Melbourne
  30. 122′🟨 YELLOW · 42' D. Yoo · South Melbourne
  31. 122′SUBSTITUTION · 46' South Melbourne · On: P. Retre · Off: J. Eliopoulos
  32. 122′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Melbourne Victory · On: G. May · Off: K. Jelacic
  33. 122′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Melbourne Victory · On: D. Genreau · Off: M. Grimaldi
  34. 122′🟨 YELLOW · 71' J. Davidson · Melbourne Victory
  35. 122′SUBSTITUTION · 76' South Melbourne · On: M. Mikkola · Off: A. Cocks
  36. 122′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Melbourne Victory · On: H. Sawyer · Off: X. Stella
  37. 122′SUBSTITUTION · 83' South Melbourne · On: H. Ramazani · Off: T. Giannakopoulos
  38. 122′🟨 YELLOW · 87' J. Inserra · Melbourne Victory
  39. 122′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Melbourne Victory · On: M. Ghossaini · Off: C. Nduka
  40. 122′SUBSTITUTION · 90' South Melbourne · On: A. Mesourouni · Off: D. Yoo
  41. 122′⚽ GOAL · 95' South Melbourne 1–1 Melbourne Victory · D. Genreau (assist J. Inserra)
  42. 122′🟨 YELLOW · 102' D. Genreau · Melbourne Victory
  43. 122′SUBSTITUTION · 105' Melbourne Victory · On: H. Shillington · Off: F. Lino
  44. 122′SUBSTITUTION · 105' Melbourne Victory · On: P. Ziereis · Off: Clarismario
  45. 122′SUBSTITUTION · 105' South Melbourne · On: J. Lackay · Off: J. Painter-Andrews
  46. 122′SUBSTITUTION · 105' South Melbourne · On: J. Swibel · Off: S. Pasquali
  47. 122′🟨 YELLOW · 111' M. Ghossaini · Melbourne Victory
  48. 122′⚽ GOAL · 117' South Melbourne 1–1 Melbourne Victory · M. Mikkola (assist J. Swibel)
  49. 122′🟨 YELLOW · 117' M. Mikkola · South Melbourne
  50. 122′⚽ GOAL · 121' South Melbourne 0–0 Melbourne Victory · G. May
  51. 122′⚽ GOAL · 121' South Melbourne 0–0 Melbourne Victory
  52. 122′PENALTY MISSED · 122' Melbourne Victory
  53. 124′⚽ GOAL · 122' South Melbourne 0–0 Melbourne Victory
  54. 125′⚽ GOAL · 123' South Melbourne 0–0 Melbourne Victory
  55. 126′⚽ GOAL · 124' South Melbourne 0–0 Melbourne Victory
  56. 127′⚽ GOAL · 124' South Melbourne 0–0 Melbourne Victory
  57. 127′⚽ GOAL South Melbourne 1–1 Melbourne Victory · D. Genreau
  58. FTFULL TIME South Melbourne 0–0 Melbourne Victory
  59. FTSouth Melbourne 0–0 Melbourne Victory after 90 minutes, as graded · Melbourne Victory win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

South Melbourne win29%
Draw27%
Melbourne Victory win44%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›
Old soccer meets new football: Australia Cup final heaves with significance | Jack SnapeThe Guardian · 18 hours ago · South Melbourne, Melbourne Victory

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 09:35

Venue · AAMI Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

South Melbourne

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Diaz Lopez

27 J. Painter-Andrews

23 J. Eliopoulos

4 M. Jankovic

3 J. Lampard

17 T. Giannakopoulos

21 S. Pasquali

16 A. Cocks

7 D. Yoo

10 B. Juach

11 Y. Uchida

Coach · Sinisa Cohadzic

Substitutes

20 · J. Charlston

5 · H. Ramazani

8 · P. Retre

22 · M. Mikkola

9 · J. Swibel

19 · A. Mesourouni

13 · J. Lackay

Melbourne Victory

Formation not confirmed

25 J. Duncan

16 J. Inserra

15 T. Lockyer

3 J. Davidson

18 F. Lino

22 X. Stella

8 J. Valadon

23 K. Jelacic

14 M. Grimaldi

11 Clarismario

44 C. Nduka

Coach · Giovanni Savarese

Substitutes

1 · J. Warshawsky

4 · P. Ziereis

36 · H. Shillington

10 · D. Genreau

9 · H. Sawyer

21 · G. May

29 · M. Ghossaini

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

South Melbourne

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Diaz Lopez

27 J. Painter-Andrews

23 J. Eliopoulos

4 M. Jankovic

3 J. Lampard

17 T. Giannakopoulos

21 S. Pasquali

16 A. Cocks

7 D. Yoo

10 B. Juach

11 Y. Uchida

Coach · Sinisa Cohadzic

Substitutes

20 · J. Charlston

5 · H. Ramazani

8 · P. Retre

22 · M. Mikkola

9 · J. Swibel

19 · A. Mesourouni

13 · J. Lackay

Melbourne Victory

Formation not confirmed

25 J. Duncan

16 J. Inserra

15 T. Lockyer

3 J. Davidson

18 F. Lino

22 X. Stella

8 J. Valadon

23 K. Jelacic

14 M. Grimaldi

11 Clarismario

44 C. Nduka

Coach · Giovanni Savarese

Substitutes

1 · J. Warshawsky

4 · P. Ziereis

36 · H. Shillington

10 · D. Genreau

9 · H. Sawyer

21 · G. May

29 · M. Ghossaini

Our number · melbourne victory winPublished 10 Oct 09:34
44% The market53%
Us44%
Market53%

We make Melbourne Victory a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.4.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
South Melbourne win29%22%+7
Draw27%25%+3
Melbourne Victory win44%53%−9
Over 2.5 goals46%55%−9
Both teams to score51%56%−5
Over 1.5 goals72%77%−5
Over 3.5 goals24%34%−9
South Melbourne or draw56%47%+9
South Melbourne clean sheet24%––
Melbourne Victory clean sheet34%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%
0123450 8.6 11.2 8.2 3.9 1 8.5 13.0 8.9 4.2 2 4.9 6.9 4.8 2.3 3 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+South Melbourne down, Melbourne Victory across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Australia Cup

SOUTH MELBOURNE

WLWDWW2–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 3–1

MELBOURNE VICTORY

LDWDDW0–1 · 3–3 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1South Melbourne4+410
2Sydney4+59
3Melbourne Victory4+68
4Lions4+47
5Preston Lions3+36
6APIA Leichhardt Tigers3+15
7Heidelberg United2+34
8Macarthur2+34
9Western Sydney Wanderers2+24
10Fremantle City2+14
11SD Raiders304
12North Sunshine Eagles3−34
13Brisbane Roar2+13
14Brunswick Juventus FC2+13
15Melbourne City2+13
16Sydney United202
17Central Coast Mariners101
18Perth Glory101
19FK Beograd1−10
20Newcastle Jets1−10
21Adelaide United1−10
22Maitland1−10
23Peninsula Power1−10
24Rochedale Rovers1−10
25Cooma Tigers FC1−20
26Cumberland United1−30
27Sydney Olympic1−30
28Uni Azzurri1−30
29Weston Bears1−30
30Bayswater City1−40
31Kingborough Lions1−40
32Marlin Coast1−40

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.