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Model 1.2

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Western Sydney Wanderers v Auckland

Western Sydney Wanderers
5–2Full time
Auckland

A-League · SAT 24 OCT · CommBank Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 10:03
Western Sydney Wanderers 5–2 Auckland AUCKLAND WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Auckland win46%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.770
The market’s Brier score0.599

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Auckland win at 46%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Auckland was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 29–24–46
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Western Sydney Wanderers v Auckland
  4. 24′Auckland ahead on 24′ through L. Vicelich. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–18–72
  5. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Western Sydney Wanderers 0–1 Auckland · L. Vicelich
  6. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Auckland win: 46% at kick-off, 72% now
  7. 25′We published Auckland at 46%. Our model now makes it 72%. 0–1 · 10–18–72
  8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 9–19–72
  9. 44′B. Borrello scores for Western Sydney Wanderers on 43′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 26–37–37
  10. 44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Western Sydney Wanderers 1–1 Auckland · B. Borrello
  11. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Auckland win: 46% at kick-off, 37% now
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Western Sydney Wanderers 1–1 Auckland
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Western Sydney Wanderers 1–1 Auckland
  14. 47′46′: L. Gillion on the scoresheet for Western Sydney Wanderers, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 64–24–12
  15. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Auckland win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
  16. 47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Western Sydney Wanderers 2–1 Auckland · L. Gillion
  17. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Auckland win: 46% at kick-off, 12% now
  18. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Western Sydney Wanderers win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Auckland win 74%)
  19. 48′We said Auckland at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 2–1 · 64–24–11
  20. 49′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 65–24–11
  21. 51′Western Sydney Wanderers ahead on 50′ through N. Milanovic. 3–1. 3–1 · 90–8–2
  22. 51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Western Sydney Wanderers 3–1 Auckland · N. Milanovic
  23. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Auckland win: 46% at kick-off, 2% now
  24. 52′We said Auckland at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 3–1 · 90–8–2
  25. 53′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 90–8–2
  26. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Western Sydney Wanderers · On: A. Waraga · Off: L. Gillion
  27. 69′An own goal by Western Sydney Wanderers's B. Borrello on 68′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 75–20–4
  28. 69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Western Sydney Wanderers 3–2 Auckland · B. Borrello (own goal)
  29. 70′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 76–20–4
  30. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Western Sydney Wanderers · On: A. Hammond · Off: N. Milanovic
  31. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Auckland · On: D. Normann · Off: J. Brimmer
  32. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Auckland · On: V. Fitzharris · Off: L. Bayliss
  33. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Auckland · On: C. Elliot · Off: H. Sakai
  34. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Western Sydney Wanderers · On: H. Ibusuki · Off: B. Borrello
  35. 87′86′: M. Di Pizio on the scoresheet for Western Sydney Wanderers, making it 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  36. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Auckland · On: J. Bidois · Off: L. Rogerson
  37. 87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Western Sydney Wanderers 4–2 Auckland · M. Di Pizio
  38. 88′6 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  39. 90′Western Sydney Wanderers ahead on 89′ through A. Waraga. 5–2. 5–2 · 100–0–0
  40. 90′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 5–2 · 100–0–0
  41. 90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Western Sydney Wanderers 5–2 Auckland · A. Waraga
  42. FTFULL TIME Western Sydney Wanderers 5–2 Auckland
  43. FTWestern Sydney Wanderers 5–2 Auckland · Auckland win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Auckland are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Western Sydney Wanderers 30%, draw 24%, Auckland 46%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Western Sydney Wanderers v AucklandBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Western Sydney Wanderers win30%
Draw24%
Auckland win46%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 07:00

RoundMatchday 2

VenueCommBank Stadium

RefereeS. Evans

Line-ups

Western Sydney Wanderers

4-2-3-1

Auckland

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Western Sydney Wanderers

Auckland

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · A-League

Last match: 17 Oct · A-League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Auckland1+23
8Western Sydney Wanderers101

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Western Sydney Wanderers

4-2-3-1

20 Lawrence Thomas

36 Panashe Madanha

33 Germán Ferreyra

22 Anthony Pantazopoulos

17 Jarrod Carluccio

8 Dylan Scicluna

32 Angus Thurgate

14 Nicolas Milanović

10 Miguel Di Pizio

21 Liam Gillion

26 Brandon Borrello

Coach · –

Substitutes

23 · Jordan Holmes

24 · Nathan Barrie

6 · Steven Ugarković

7 · Aydan Hammond

11 · Atiya Waraga

27 · Jai Rose

9 · Hiroshi Ibusuki

Auckland

4-2-3-1

1 Michael Woud

2 Hiroki Sakai

25 Luka Vicelich

4 Nando Pijnaker

15 Francis De Vries

22 Jake Brimmer

8 Felipe Gallegos

77 Lachlan Brook

10 Lachlan Bayliss

27 Logan Rogerson

9 Sam Cosgrove

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · Joseph James Knowles

17 · Callan Elliot

23 · Ronan Wynne

57 · Van Fitzharris

16 · Daniel Normann

35 · Jonty Bidois

21 · Isa Prins

Our number · auckland winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
46% The market36%
Us46%
Market36%

We make Auckland a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Western Sydney Wanderers v Auckland1.24 – 1.63
Form · A-League this season · since 16 OctW0 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0
Table places · points 1 v 38 v 1
The market · Auckland win36% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45%50% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 06:36
Our probability · Auckland win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Western Sydney Wanderers win30%37%−7
Draw24%27%−3
Auckland win46%36%+10
Over 2.5 goals54%52%+2
Both teams to score56%57%−1
Over 1.5 goals78%75%+3
Over 3.5 goals32%32%0
Western Sydney Wanderers or draw54%64%−10
Western Sydney Wanderers clean sheet20%––
Auckland clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%
0123450 5.8 9.3 7.5 4.1 1 7.2 11.3 9.1 5.0 2.1 2 4.4 7.0 5.6 3.1 3 3.0 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Western Sydney Wanderers down, Auckland across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.50 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsWES 0–2 AUC · AUC 1–0 WES · AUC 1–1 WES · WES 0–1 AUC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · A-League this season · since 16 Oct

WESTERN SYDNEY WANDERERS

D0–0

AUCKLAND

W3–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Auckland1+23
2Brisbane Roar1+13
3Wellington Phoenix1+13
4Macarthur1+13
5Central Coast Mariners101
6Newcastle Jets101
7Sydney101
8Western Sydney Wanderers101
9Adelaide United000
10Melbourne Victory1−10
11Perth Glory2−20
12Melbourne City1−20

The competition's standings before kick-off.