

Western Sydney Wanderers v Auckland
Western Sydney Wanderers
AucklandA-League · SAT 24 OCT · CommBank Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Auckland win at 46%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Auckland was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 29–24–46
- 1′KICK-OFF Western Sydney Wanderers v Auckland
- 24′Auckland ahead on 24′ through L. Vicelich. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–18–72
- 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Western Sydney Wanderers 0–1 Auckland · L. Vicelich
- 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Auckland win: 46% at kick-off, 72% now
- 25′We published Auckland at 46%. Our model now makes it 72%. 0–1 · 10–18–72
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 9–19–72
- 44′B. Borrello scores for Western Sydney Wanderers on 43′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 26–37–37
- 44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Western Sydney Wanderers 1–1 Auckland · B. Borrello
- 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Auckland win: 46% at kick-off, 37% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Western Sydney Wanderers 1–1 Auckland
- 46′SECOND HALF Western Sydney Wanderers 1–1 Auckland
- 47′46′: L. Gillion on the scoresheet for Western Sydney Wanderers, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 64–24–12
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Auckland win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
- 47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Western Sydney Wanderers 2–1 Auckland · L. Gillion
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Auckland win: 46% at kick-off, 12% now
- 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Western Sydney Wanderers win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Auckland win 74%)
- 48′We said Auckland at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 2–1 · 64–24–11
- 49′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 65–24–11
- 51′Western Sydney Wanderers ahead on 50′ through N. Milanovic. 3–1. 3–1 · 90–8–2
- 51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Western Sydney Wanderers 3–1 Auckland · N. Milanovic
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Auckland win: 46% at kick-off, 2% now
- 52′We said Auckland at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 3–1 · 90–8–2
- 53′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 90–8–2
- 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Western Sydney Wanderers · On: A. Waraga · Off: L. Gillion
- 69′An own goal by Western Sydney Wanderers's B. Borrello on 68′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 75–20–4
- 69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Western Sydney Wanderers 3–2 Auckland · B. Borrello (own goal)
- 70′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 76–20–4
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Western Sydney Wanderers · On: A. Hammond · Off: N. Milanovic
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Auckland · On: D. Normann · Off: J. Brimmer
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Auckland · On: V. Fitzharris · Off: L. Bayliss
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Auckland · On: C. Elliot · Off: H. Sakai
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Western Sydney Wanderers · On: H. Ibusuki · Off: B. Borrello
- 87′86′: M. Di Pizio on the scoresheet for Western Sydney Wanderers, making it 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Auckland · On: J. Bidois · Off: L. Rogerson
- 87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Western Sydney Wanderers 4–2 Auckland · M. Di Pizio
- 88′6 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 100–0–0
- 90′Western Sydney Wanderers ahead on 89′ through A. Waraga. 5–2. 5–2 · 100–0–0
- 90′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 5–2 · 100–0–0
- 90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Western Sydney Wanderers 5–2 Auckland · A. Waraga
- FTFULL TIME Western Sydney Wanderers 5–2 Auckland
- FTWestern Sydney Wanderers 5–2 Auckland · Auckland win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Auckland are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Western Sydney Wanderers 30%, draw 24%, Auckland 46%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Western Sydney Wanderers win30%
Auckland win46%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 07:00
RoundMatchday 2
VenueCommBank Stadium
RefereeS. Evans
Match timeline
All events
Western Sydney WanderersMIN
AucklandEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Western Sydney Wanderers
4-2-3-1
Auckland
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Western Sydney Wanderers
Auckland
Last match: 16 Oct · A-League
Last match: 17 Oct · A-League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Western Sydney Wanderers
4-2-3-1
20 Lawrence Thomas
36 Panashe Madanha
33 Germán Ferreyra
22 Anthony Pantazopoulos
17 Jarrod Carluccio
8 Dylan Scicluna
32 Angus Thurgate
14 Nicolas Milanović
10 Miguel Di Pizio
21 Liam Gillion
26 Brandon Borrello
Coach · –
Substitutes
23 · Jordan Holmes
24 · Nathan Barrie
6 · Steven Ugarković
7 · Aydan Hammond
11 · Atiya Waraga
27 · Jai Rose
9 · Hiroshi Ibusuki
Auckland
4-2-3-1
1 Michael Woud
2 Hiroki Sakai
25 Luka Vicelich
4 Nando Pijnaker
15 Francis De Vries
22 Jake Brimmer
8 Felipe Gallegos
77 Lachlan Brook
10 Lachlan Bayliss
27 Logan Rogerson
9 Sam Cosgrove
Coach · –
Substitutes
30 · Joseph James Knowles
17 · Callan Elliot
23 · Ronan Wynne
57 · Van Fitzharris
16 · Daniel Normann
35 · Jonty Bidois
21 · Isa Prins
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Western Sydney Wanderers
4-2-3-1
20 Lawrence Thomas
36 Panashe Madanha
33 Germán Ferreyra
22 Anthony Pantazopoulos
17 Jarrod Carluccio
8 Dylan Scicluna
32 Angus Thurgate
14 Nicolas Milanović
10 Miguel Di Pizio
21 Liam Gillion
26 Brandon Borrello
Coach · –
Substitutes
23 · Jordan Holmes
24 · Nathan Barrie
6 · Steven Ugarković
7 · Aydan Hammond
11 · Atiya Waraga
27 · Jai Rose
9 · Hiroshi Ibusuki
Auckland
4-2-3-1
1 Michael Woud
2 Hiroki Sakai
25 Luka Vicelich
4 Nando Pijnaker
15 Francis De Vries
22 Jake Brimmer
8 Felipe Gallegos
77 Lachlan Brook
10 Lachlan Bayliss
27 Logan Rogerson
9 Sam Cosgrove
Coach · –
Substitutes
30 · Joseph James Knowles
17 · Callan Elliot
23 · Ronan Wynne
57 · Van Fitzharris
16 · Daniel Normann
35 · Jonty Bidois
21 · Isa Prins
We make Auckland a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Sydney Wanderers win | 30% | 37% | −7 |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | −3 |
| Auckland win | 46% | 36% | +10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 52% | +2 |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 32% | 0 |
| Western Sydney Wanderers or draw | 54% | 64% | −10 |
| Western Sydney Wanderers clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
| Auckland clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2024/25Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · A-League this season · since 16 Oct
WESTERN SYDNEY WANDERERS
AUCKLAND
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auckland | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Brisbane Roar | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Wellington Phoenix | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Macarthur | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 5 | Central Coast Mariners | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Newcastle Jets | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Sydney | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Adelaide United | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Melbourne Victory | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 11 | Perth Glory | 2 | −2 | 0 |
| 12 | Melbourne City | 1 | −2 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Brisbane Roar
Wellington Phoenix
Macarthur
Central Coast Mariners
Newcastle Jets
Sydney
Adelaide United
Melbourne Victory
Perth Glory
Melbourne City