Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory prediction · A-League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 05:30

Wellington Phoenix 2–1 Melbourne Victory MELBOURNE VICTORY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Melbourne Victory win~~45%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.743

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.763

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Melbourne Victory win at 45%.
4′Much as we predicted: Melbourne Victory was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 30–26–44
4′KICK-OFF Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory
15′14′: C. Piper on the scoresheet for Wellington Phoenix, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 58–23–19
15′We said Melbourne Victory at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 58–23–19
15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Wellington Phoenix 1–0 Melbourne Victory · C. Piper (assist M. Sheridan)
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Melbourne Victory win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Wellington Phoenix win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Melbourne Victory win 19%)
25′Melbourne Victory level it on 25′ through C. Nduka. 1–1. 1–1 · 29–30–41
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Wellington Phoenix 1–1 Melbourne Victory · C. Nduka
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Melbourne Victory win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Melbourne Victory win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Wellington Phoenix win 29%)
26′Melbourne Victory level it on 24′ through C. Nduka. 1–1. 1–1 · 29–31–40
28′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Wellington Phoenix · On: N. Walker · Off: R. Duran
45′HALF-TIME Wellington Phoenix 1–1 Melbourne Victory
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' P. Ziereis · Melbourne Victory
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Melbourne Victory win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Melbourne Victory win 34%)
48′SECOND HALF Wellington Phoenix 1–1 Melbourne Victory
51′We said Melbourne Victory at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 25–42–33
52′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 25–42–33
60′We said Melbourne Victory at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 22–49–29
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Melbourne Victory · On: K. Jelacic · Off: Clarismario
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Melbourne Victory · On: T. Lockyer · Off: P. Ziereis
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Wellington Phoenix · On: W. Scott · Off: J. McGarry
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Melbourne Victory win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
69′We said Melbourne Victory at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 18–58–24
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' D. Genreau · Melbourne Victory
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Melbourne Victory · On: X. Stella · Off: G. May
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Melbourne Victory · On: M. Ghossaini · Off: M. Grimaldi
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Wellington Phoenix · On: R. Bidois · Off: L. Mitchell
79′R. Bidois scores for Wellington Phoenix on 77′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 85–14–1
79′⚽ GOAL · 77' Wellington Phoenix 2–1 Melbourne Victory · R. Bidois (assist N. Walker)
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Melbourne Victory win: 45% at kick-off, 1% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Wellington Phoenix win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 14%)
80′We said Melbourne Victory at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 2–1 · 86–13–1
81′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 87–12–1
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Melbourne Victory · On: B. Hamill · Off: C. Nduka
FTFULL TIME Wellington Phoenix 2–1 Melbourne Victory
FTWellington Phoenix 2–1 Melbourne Victory · Melbourne Victory win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Melbourne Victory are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wellington Phoenix 31%, draw 25%, Melbourne Victory 45%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne VictoryBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Wellington Phoenix win31%

Draw25%

Melbourne Victory win45%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 03:00

RoundMatchday 1

VenueSky Stadium

Line-ups

Wellington Phoenix

4-3-3

Melbourne Victory

4-4-1-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wellington Phoenix

Melbourne Victory

177Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Apr · A-League

Last match: 14 Oct · AFC Champions League Two

0Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Wellington Phoenix	0	0	0
10	Melbourne Victory	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Wellington Phoenix

4-3-3

13 Henry Gray

27 Matthew Sheridan

28 Bill Tuiloma

18 Lukas Kelly-Heald

23 James McGarry

8 Max Anderson

25 Kazuki Nagasawa

35 Luke Mitchell

7 Bryce Duke

99 Corban Piper

9 Rafael Duran

Coach · –

Substitutes

17 · Nathan Walker

5 · Walter Scott

11 · Riley Bidois

30 · Alby Kelly-Heald

34 · Dylan Gardiner

24 · Tze-xuan Loke

37 · Anaru Cassidy

Melbourne Victory

4-4-1-1

25 Jack Duncan

16 Joshua Inserra

4 Philipp Ziereis

3 Jason Davidson

18 Franco Lino

11 Clarismario

8 Jordi Valadon

10 Denis Genreau

14 Matthew Grimaldi

21 Guillermo May

44 Charles Nduka

Coach · –

Substitutes

15 · Tom Lockyer

23 · Keegan Jelacic

22 · Xavier Stella

29 · Michael Ghossaini

5 · Brendan Hamill

1 · Jack Warshawsky

36 · Harrison Shillington

Our number · melbourne victory winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market45%

Us45%

~~Market~~45%

We make Melbourne Victory a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory~~1.23 – 1.54

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~9 v 10

~~The market · Melbourne Victory win~~45% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Melbourne Victory win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wellington Phoenix win	31%	29%	+2
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Melbourne Victory win	45%	45%	0
Over 2.5 goals	52%	56%	−4
Both teams to score	55%	59%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	78%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	35%	−5
Wellington Phoenix or draw	55%	55%	0
Wellington Phoenix clean sheet	22%	–	–
Melbourne Victory clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.5 9.8 7.4 3.9 1 7.8 11.6 8.9 4.6 2 4.8 7.1 5.5 2.8 3 3.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wellington Phoenix down, Melbourne Victory across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 838 A-League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A-League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wellington Phoenix at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Melbourne Victory away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Wellington Phoenix, 1.54 for Melbourne Victory. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MEL 0–1 WEL · WEL 2–3 MEL · MEL 5–1 WEL · WEL 2–3 MEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · A-League this season

WELLINGTON PHOENIX

No matches in our record yet.

MELBOURNE VICTORY

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Auckland	1	+2	3
2	Macarthur	1	+1	3
3	Central Coast Mariners	1	0	1
4	Newcastle Jets	1	0	1
5	Sydney	1	0	1
6	Western Sydney Wanderers	1	0	1
7	Adelaide United	0	0	0
8	Brisbane Roar	0	0	0
9	Wellington Phoenix	0	0	0
10	Melbourne Victory	0	0	0
11	Perth Glory	1	−1	0
12	Melbourne City	1	−2	0