Wellington Phoenix v Central Coast Mariners prediction · A-League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Wellington PhoenixDrawCentral Coast Mariners

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 02:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Wellington Phoenix 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wellington Phoenix are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wellington Phoenix 41%, draw 24%, Central Coast Mariners 35%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Wellington Phoenix v Central Coast MarinersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Wellington Phoenix win41%

Draw24%

Central Coast Mariners win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 02:00

RoundMatchday 2

VenueSky Stadium

RefereeS. Kelly

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wellington Phoenix

Central Coast Mariners

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · A-League

Last match: 17 Oct · A-League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Wellington Phoenix	1	+1	3
7	Central Coast Mariners	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wellington phoenix winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market51%

Us41%

~~Market~~51%

We make Wellington Phoenix a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wellington Phoenix v Central Coast Mariners~~1.55 – 1.41

~~Form · A-League this season · since 17 Oct~~W1 D0 L0 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 1~~4 v 7

~~The market · Wellington Phoenix win~~51% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Wellington Phoenix win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wellington Phoenix win	41%	51%	−10
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Central Coast Mariners win	35%	24%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	56%	56%	0
Both teams to score	59%	58%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	78%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	36%	−2
Wellington Phoenix or draw	65%	76%	−11
Wellington Phoenix clean sheet	25%	–	–
Central Coast Mariners clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.4 7.5 5.2 2.5 1 8.1 11.1 7.8 3.7 2 6.2 8.6 6.0 2.9 3 3.2 4.4 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wellington Phoenix down, Central Coast Mariners across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 840 A-League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A-League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wellington Phoenix at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Central Coast Mariners away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Wellington Phoenix, 1.41 for Central Coast Mariners. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~WEL 3–1 CEN · CEN 1–1 WEL · WEL 0–0 CEN · CEN 0–3 WEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · A-League this season · since 17 Oct

WELLINGTON PHOENIX

W2–1

CENTRAL COAST MARINERS

D2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Western Sydney Wanderers	2	+3	4
2	Macarthur	2	+1	4
3	Brisbane Roar	1	+1	3
4	Wellington Phoenix	1	+1	3
5	Auckland	2	−1	3
6	Newcastle Jets	2	0	2
7	Central Coast Mariners	1	0	1
8	Sydney	1	0	1
9	Melbourne Victory	2	−1	1
10	Melbourne City	2	−2	1
11	Adelaide United	0	0	0
12	Perth Glory	2	−2	0