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Sydney v Western Sydney Wanderers

Sydney
0–0Full time
Western Sydney Wanderers

A-League · FRI 16 OCT · Allianz Stadium

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 12:37
Sydney 0–0 Western Sydney Wanderers SYDNEY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Sydney win49%
The market said42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.903
The market’s Brier score0.825

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sydney win at 49%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Sydney was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–24–27
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Sydney v Western Sydney Wanderers
  4. 13′SUBSTITUTION · 12' Western Sydney Wanderers · On: A. Waraga · Off: A. Lual Corrected
  5. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' M. Di Pizio · Western Sydney Wanderers
  6. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Sydney win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Sydney 0–0 Western Sydney Wanderers
  8. 45′SECOND HALF Sydney 0–0 Western Sydney Wanderers
  9. 49′We said Sydney at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–39–24
  10. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' J. Hollman · Sydney
  11. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Sydney win 36%)
  12. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' N. Milanovic · Western Sydney Wanderers
  13. 55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 35–43–22
  14. 57′We said Sydney at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–22
  15. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' A. Popovic · Sydney
  16. 65′We said Sydney at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–52–19
  17. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Sydney win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
  18. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' G. Ferreyra · Western Sydney Wanderers
  19. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Sydney · On: A. Akon · Off: A. Toure Corrected
  20. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Western Sydney Wanderers · On: A. Hammond · Off: N. Milanovic Corrected
  21. 72′We said Sydney at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–16
  22. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' O. Sunday · Sydney
  23. 77′We said Sydney at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
  24. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Sydney win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
  25. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Western Sydney Wanderers · On: N. Barrie · Off: A. Thurgate Corrected
  26. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Western Sydney Wanderers · On: J. Carluccio · Off: A. Gersbach Corrected
  27. 81′We said Sydney at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
  28. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Western Sydney Wanderers · On: H. Ibusuki · Off: L. Gillion Corrected
  29. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sydney · On: G. Popovic · Off: O. Sunday Corrected
  30. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sydney · On: W. Kamijo · Off: J. Hollman Corrected
  31. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sydney · On: J. Overy · Off: T. Sekine Corrected
  32. 85′We said Sydney at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
  33. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Sydney win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
  34. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' D. Scicluna · Western Sydney Wanderers
  35. 90′Full time, 0–0. We called Sydney at 49% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
  36. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' B. Garuccio · Sydney
  37. 92′We said Sydney at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–3
  38. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' J. Carluccio · Western Sydney Wanderers
  39. FTFULL TIME Sydney 0–0 Western Sydney Wanderers
  40. FTSydney 0–0 Western Sydney Wanderers · Sydney win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sydney are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sydney 49%, draw 23%, Western Sydney Wanderers 28%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Sydney v Western Sydney WanderersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Sydney win49%
Draw23%
Western Sydney Wanderers win28%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 1

VenueAllianz Stadium

Line-ups

Sydney

4-2-3-1

Western Sydney Wanderers

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sydney

Western Sydney Wanderers

37Days since last match69

Last match: 9 Sept · Australia Cup

Last match: 8 Aug · Australia Cup

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Sydney000
10Western Sydney Wanderers000

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sydney

4-2-3-1

12 Harrison Devenish-Meares

23 Rhyan Grant

41 Alexandar Popovic

4 Jordan Courtney-Perkins

17 Ben Garuccio

36 Rhys Youlley

15 Jake Hollman

35 Al Hassan Toure

20 Tiago Quintal

14 Takahiro Sekine

9 Oriola Sunday

Coach · –

Substitutes

7 · Akol Akon

8 · Wataru Kamijo

16 · Gabriel Popovic

2 · James Overy

30 · Alexander Zaverdinos

28 · Ethan Dyer

29 · Joseph Lacey

Western Sydney Wanderers

4-2-3-1

20 Lawrence Thomas

36 Panashe Madanha

33 Germán Ferreyra

22 Anthony Pantazopoulos

3 Alex Gersbach

32 Angus Thurgate

8 Dylan Scicluna

14 Nicolas Milanović

10 Miguel Di Pizio

21 Liam Gillion

19 Awan Lual

Coach · –

Substitutes

11 · Atiya Waraga

7 · Aydan Hammond

24 · Nathan Barrie

17 · Jarrod Carluccio

9 · Hiroshi Ibusuki

23 · Jordan Holmes

27 · Jai Rose

Our number · sydney winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
49% The market42%
Us49%
Market42%

We make Sydney a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sydney v Western Sydney Wanderers1.72 – 1.22
Table places · points 0 v 06 v 10
The market · Sydney win42% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 10 OCT 03:5416 OCT 09:32
Our probability · Sydney win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sydney win49%42%+7
Draw23%26%−3
Western Sydney Wanderers win28%32%−4
Over 2.5 goals56%56%0
Both teams to score57%59%−2
Over 1.5 goals79%77%+2
Over 3.5 goals34%35%−1
Sydney or draw72%68%+4
Sydney clean sheet30%––
Western Sydney Wanderers clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%
0123450 5.4 6.7 4.0 1 9.3 10.8 6.7 2.8 2 7.8 9.3 5.7 2.3 3 4.5 5.3 3.2 4 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sydney down, Western Sydney Wanderers across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsWES 0–2 SYD · SYD 4–1 WES · WES 1–0 SYD · SYD 3–3 WES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · A-League this season

SYDNEY

No matches in our record yet.

WESTERN SYDNEY WANDERERS

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Adelaide United000
2Central Coast Mariners000
3Newcastle Jets000
4Perth Glory000
5Brisbane Roar000
6Sydney000
7Wellington Phoenix000
8Melbourne Victory000
9Melbourne City000
10Western Sydney Wanderers000
11Macarthur000
12Auckland000

The competition's standings before kick-off.