Newcastle Jets v Wellington Phoenix prediction · A-League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Newcastle JetsDrawWellington Phoenix

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 04:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Newcastle Jets 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Newcastle Jets are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Newcastle Jets 52%, draw 22%, Wellington Phoenix 26%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Newcastle Jets v Wellington PhoenixBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Newcastle Jets win52%

Draw22%

Wellington Phoenix win26%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 04:00

RoundMatchday 3

VenueMcDonald Jones Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Newcastle Jets

Wellington Phoenix

7Days since last match13

Last match: 24 Oct · A-League

Last match: 18 Oct · A-League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Wellington Phoenix	1	+1	3
6	Newcastle Jets	2	0	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · newcastle jets winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Newcastle Jets a 52% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Newcastle Jets v Wellington Phoenix~~1.97 – 1.31

~~Form · A-League this season · since 17 Oct~~W0 D2 L0 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 2 v 3~~6 v 4

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Newcastle Jets win	52%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Wellington Phoenix win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Newcastle Jets or draw	74%	–	–
Newcastle Jets clean sheet	27%	–	–
Wellington Phoenix clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.0 5.0 3.3 1 7.5 9.7 6.3 2.8 2 7.3 9.3 6.1 2.7 3 4.8 6.1 4.0 4 2.4 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Newcastle Jets down, Wellington Phoenix across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 843 A-League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A-League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Newcastle Jets at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Wellington Phoenix away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.97 goals for Newcastle Jets, 1.31 for Wellington Phoenix. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NEW 4–1 WEL · WEL 1–3 NEW · NEW 1–2 WEL · WEL 2–1 NEW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · A-League this season · since 17 Oct

NEWCASTLE JETS

DD2–2 · 1–1

WELLINGTON PHOENIX

W2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Western Sydney Wanderers	2	+3	4
2	Macarthur	2	+1	4
3	Brisbane Roar	1	+1	3
4	Wellington Phoenix	1	+1	3
5	Auckland	2	−1	3
6	Newcastle Jets	2	0	2
7	Central Coast Mariners	1	0	1
8	Sydney	1	0	1
9	Melbourne Victory	2	−1	1
10	Melbourne City	2	−2	1
11	Adelaide United	0	0	0
12	Perth Glory	2	−2	0