Newcastle Jets v Macarthur prediction · A-League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 07:31

Newcastle Jets 1–1 Macarthur NEWCASTLE JETS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Newcastle Jets win~~52%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.971

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.868

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Newcastle Jets win at 52%.
1′KICK-OFF Newcastle Jets v Macarthur
2′Little has changed for our model: Newcastle Jets 52% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–21–28
4′We said Newcastle Jets at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–15–12
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Newcastle Jets 1–0 Macarthur
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Newcastle Jets win: 52% at kick-off, 72% now
6′5′: X. Bertoncello on the scoresheet for Newcastle Jets, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 72–15–12
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 1–0 · 73–17–10
45′SECOND HALF Newcastle Jets 1–0 Macarthur
46′HALF-TIME Newcastle Jets 1–0 Macarthur
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Macarthur · On: D. Rose · Off: O. Randazzo
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Macarthur · On: R. Fraser · Off: C. Pain
47′We said Newcastle Jets at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Z. Schreiber · Newcastle Jets
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Macarthur · On: L. Vickery · Off: B. Oliveira
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Newcastle Jets · On: J. Shaughnessy · Off: A. Grant
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Newcastle Jets · On: W. Dobson · Off: J. Recchia
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Macarthur · On: B. Gibson · Off: D. Bosnjak
67′We said Newcastle Jets at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Newcastle Jets · On: P. Wood · Off: N. Vergos
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Newcastle Jets · On: J. Lolley · Off: X. Bertoncello
70′We said Newcastle Jets at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–52–19
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Macarthur · On: M. Toure · Off: A. Stamatelopoulos
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Newcastle Jets 1–1 Macarthur
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Newcastle Jets win: 52% at kick-off, 29% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Newcastle Jets win 81%)
71′Macarthur level it on 70′ through M. Toure. 1–1. 1–1 · 28–53–19
72′Newcastle Jets have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 27–55–18
75′We said Newcastle Jets at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–60–16
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Newcastle Jets win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Newcastle Jets · On: A. Badolato · Off: M. Burgess
80′We said Newcastle Jets at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–70–12
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' L. Vickery · Macarthur
84′We said Newcastle Jets at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 1–1 · 12–80–8
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Newcastle Jets win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
87′We said Newcastle Jets at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' W. Dobson · Newcastle Jets
92′We said Newcastle Jets at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–3
93′1–1 at the end. Our 52% on Newcastle Jets misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Newcastle Jets 1–1 Macarthur
FTNewcastle Jets 1–1 Macarthur · Newcastle Jets win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Newcastle Jets are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Newcastle Jets 52%, draw 21%, Macarthur 28%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Newcastle Jets v MacarthurBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Newcastle Jets win52%

Draw21%

Macarthur win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 2

VenueMcDonald Jones Stadium

RefereeA. King

Line-ups

Newcastle Jets

4-1-4-1

Macarthur

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Newcastle Jets

Macarthur

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · A-League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Macarthur	1	+1	3
6	Newcastle Jets	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Newcastle Jets

4-1-4-1

1 James Nicholas Delianov

22 Joel Bertolissio

39 Thomas Kevin Aquilina

2 Alex Grant

23 Daniel Wilmering

14 Max Burgess

27 Julian Recchia

6 Zane Schreiber

10 Zach Clough

43 Xavier Bertoncello

9 Nikolaos Vergos

Coach · –

Substitutes

40 · Jordan Baylis

5 · Joe Shaughnessy

19 · Alexander Badolato

28 · Will Dobson

11 · Joe Lolley

8 · Patrick Wood

17 · Ethan Debono

Macarthur

4-2-3-1

1 Alex Robinson

25 Callum Talbot

3 Nara Tatsuki

21 Nathan Paull

5 Jonathan Aspropotamitis

22 Liam Rose

17 Oliver Randazzo

7 Connor Pain

24 Dean Bosnjak

11 Bernardo

16 Apostolos Stamatelopoulos

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · Joshua Lakkis

31 · Sebastian Krslovic

18 · Dylan Rose

10 · Ryan Fraser

9 · Ben Gibson

99 · Musa Touré

8 · Luke Vickery

Our number · newcastle jets winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

52% The market46%

Us52%

~~Market~~46%

We make Newcastle Jets a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Newcastle Jets v Macarthur~~2.12 – 1.50

~~Form · A-League this season · since 17 Oct~~W0 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 3~~6 v 4

~~The market · Newcastle Jets win~~46% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Newcastle Jets win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Newcastle Jets win	52%	46%	+6
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Macarthur win	28%	30%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	70%	65%	+5
Both teams to score	68%	67%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	87%	84%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	49%	45%	+4
Newcastle Jets or draw	72%	70%	+2
Newcastle Jets clean sheet	23%	–	–
Macarthur clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.8%

0123450 2.8 4.2 3.1 1 5.8 8.5 6.3 3.2 2 6.0 8.8 6.6 3.3 3 4.2 6.2 4.6 2.3 4 2.3 3.3 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Newcastle Jets down, Macarthur across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 840 A-League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A-League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.40 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Newcastle Jets at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Macarthur away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.12 goals for Newcastle Jets, 1.50 for Macarthur. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 04:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.40

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MAC 3–2 NEW · NEW 1–0 MAC · NEW 4–5 MAC · NEW 3–0 MAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · A-League this season · since 17 Oct

NEWCASTLE JETS

D2–2

MACARTHUR

W2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Auckland	1	+2	3
2	Brisbane Roar	1	+1	3
3	Wellington Phoenix	1	+1	3
4	Macarthur	1	+1	3
5	Central Coast Mariners	1	0	1
6	Newcastle Jets	1	0	1
7	Sydney	1	0	1
8	Western Sydney Wanderers	1	0	1
9	Adelaide United	0	0	0
10	Melbourne Victory	1	−1	0
11	Perth Glory	2	−2	0
12	Melbourne City	1	−2	0