Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Melbourne Victory win at 42%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Melbourne Victory 42% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–32
3. 1′KICK-OFF Melbourne Victory v Melbourne City
4. 6′We said Melbourne Victory at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–19–13
5. 6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Melbourne Victory 1–0 Melbourne City
6. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Melbourne Victory win: 42% at kick-off, 68% now
7. 7′K. Jelacic scores for Melbourne Victory on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–19–13
8. 24′We said Melbourne Victory at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–11
9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 70–20–10
10. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Melbourne Victory win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
11. 45′SECOND HALF Melbourne Victory 1–0 Melbourne City
12. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' A. Nabbout · Melbourne City
13. 46′HALF-TIME Melbourne Victory 1–0 Melbourne City
14. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Melbourne City · On: E. Marcondes · Off: B. Kutleshi
15. 52′We said Melbourne Victory at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
16. 53′We said Melbourne Victory at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–45–25
17. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Melbourne Victory 1–1 Melbourne City
18. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Melbourne Victory win: 42% at kick-off, 30% now
19. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Melbourne Victory win 75%)
20. 54′53′: A. Nabbout on the scoresheet for Melbourne City, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 30–45–25
21. 56′We said Melbourne Victory at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–47–24
22. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' H. Delbridge · Melbourne City
23. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Melbourne City · On: T. Kanamori · Off: A. Nabbout
24. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Melbourne City · On: M. Leckie · Off: Q. MacNicol
25. 66′We said Melbourne Victory at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–56–20
26. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Melbourne Victory · On: Clarismario · Off: K. Jelacic
27. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Melbourne Victory win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
28. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Melbourne City · On: J. Cascante · Off: L. Bonetig
29. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Melbourne Victory · On: F. Lino · Off: J. Inserra
30. 73′We said Melbourne Victory at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–16
31. 80′We said Melbourne Victory at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–76–11
32. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Melbourne Victory win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
33. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' J. Davidson · Melbourne Victory
34. 83′We said Melbourne Victory at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–8
35. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Melbourne City · On: R. Ballah · Off: M. Memeti
36. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Melbourne Victory · On: H. Sawyer · Off: C. Nduka
37. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Melbourne Victory · On: X. Stella · Off: M. Grimaldi Corrected
38. 90′We said Melbourne Victory at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
39. 93′16 shots for Melbourne City, 11 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 2–96–2
40. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Melbourne Victory win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
41. 96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Clarismario · Melbourne Victory
42. FTFULL TIME Melbourne Victory 1–1 Melbourne City
43. FTMelbourne Victory 1–1 Melbourne City · Melbourne Victory win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.