Macarthur v Western Sydney Wanderers prediction · A-League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MacarthurDrawWestern Sydney Wanderers

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 08:40

Before kick-off · Match result · Macarthur 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Macarthur are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Macarthur 41%, draw 23%, Western Sydney Wanderers 36%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Macarthur v Western Sydney WanderersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Macarthur win41%

Draw23%

Western Sydney Wanderers win36%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 08:40

RoundMatchday 3

VenueCampbelltown Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Macarthur

Western Sydney Wanderers

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · A-League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · macarthur winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Macarthur a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Macarthur v Western Sydney Wanderers~~1.71 – 1.60

~~Form · A-League this season · since 16 Oct~~W1 D1 L0 · W1 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 4~~2 v 1

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Macarthur win	41%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Western Sydney Wanderers win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Macarthur or draw	64%	–	–
Macarthur clean sheet	21%	–	–
Western Sydney Wanderers clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 3.9 5.9 4.7 2.5 1 6.3 10.0 7.8 4.2 2 5.4 8.4 6.6 3.6 3 3.1 4.8 3.8 2.0 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Macarthur down, Western Sydney Wanderers across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 843 A-League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A-League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Macarthur at home: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Western Sydney Wanderers away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Macarthur, 1.60 for Western Sydney Wanderers. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MAC 0–4 WES · WES 0–1 MAC · MAC 1–1 WES · MAC 1–3 WES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · A-League this season · since 16 Oct

MACARTHUR

WD2–1 · 1–1

WESTERN SYDNEY WANDERERS

DW0–0 · 5–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Western Sydney Wanderers	2	+3	4
2	Macarthur	2	+1	4
3	Brisbane Roar	1	+1	3
4	Wellington Phoenix	1	+1	3
5	Auckland	2	−1	3
6	Newcastle Jets	2	0	2
7	Central Coast Mariners	1	0	1
8	Sydney	1	0	1
9	Melbourne Victory	2	−1	1
10	Melbourne City	2	−2	1
11	Adelaide United	0	0	0
12	Perth Glory	2	−2	0