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Central Coast Mariners v Newcastle Jets

Central Coast Mariners

2–2Full time

Newcastle Jets

A-League · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 12:44

Central Coast Mariners 2–2 Newcastle Jets NEWCASTLE JETS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Newcastle Jets win~~42%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.898

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.905

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Newcastle Jets win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Newcastle Jets 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 36–23–42
1′KICK-OFF Central Coast Mariners v Newcastle Jets
11′We said Newcastle Jets at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 1–0 · 59–21–20
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Central Coast Mariners 1–0 Newcastle Jets
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Newcastle Jets win: 42% at kick-off, 20% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Central Coast Mariners win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Newcastle Jets win 20%)
12′A. Auglah scores for Central Coast Mariners on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 60–21–20
14′We said Newcastle Jets at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 60–21–19
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 62–22–16
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' W. Dobson · Newcastle Jets
36′We said Newcastle Jets at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–22–14
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' M. Burgess · Newcastle Jets
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' A. Auglah · Central Coast Mariners
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Newcastle Jets win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
45′SECOND HALF Central Coast Mariners 1–0 Newcastle Jets
48′HALF-TIME Central Coast Mariners 1–0 Newcastle Jets
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' A. Bolton · Central Coast Mariners
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Central Coast Mariners 1–1 Newcastle Jets
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Newcastle Jets win: 42% at kick-off, 34% now
50′49′: P. Wood on the scoresheet for Newcastle Jets, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 30–37–33
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Central Coast Mariners win 29%)
54′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Central Coast Mariners · On: A. De Lima · Off: A. Bolton
55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Central Coast Mariners · On: J. Mantell · Off: H. Eames
58′We said Newcastle Jets at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 27–42–30
60′We said Newcastle Jets at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 2–1 · 70–22–7
60′Central Coast Mariners ahead on 60′ through O. Lavale. 2–1. 2–1 · 70–22–7
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Central Coast Mariners 2–1 Newcastle Jets
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Newcastle Jets win: 42% at kick-off, 7% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Central Coast Mariners win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 22%)
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Newcastle Jets · On: Z. Schreiber · Off: W. Dobson
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Newcastle Jets · On: Z. Clough · Off: J. Recchia
70′We said Newcastle Jets at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–20–4
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Central Coast Mariners · On: T. Mckibbin · Off: S. Roux
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Newcastle Jets · On: N. Vergos · Off: P. Wood
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Newcastle Jets · On: J. Hill · Off: J. Lolley
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Newcastle Jets win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
77′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 16–66–18
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Central Coast Mariners 2–2 Newcastle Jets
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Newcastle Jets win: 42% at kick-off, 18% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Central Coast Mariners win 16%)
78′An own goal by Central Coast Mariners's O. Lavale on 78′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 15–68–17
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Newcastle Jets win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Newcastle Jets · On: E. Debono · Off: X. Bertoncello
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' B. Brandtman · Central Coast Mariners
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Central Coast Mariners · On: L. Becvinovski · Off: A. Auglah
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Central Coast Mariners · On: P. Ortiz · Off: O. Lavale
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Newcastle Jets win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
95′2–2 at the end. Our 42% on Newcastle Jets misses, and the record keeps it. 2–2 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Central Coast Mariners 2–2 Newcastle Jets
FTCentral Coast Mariners 2–2 Newcastle Jets · Newcastle Jets win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Newcastle Jets are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Central Coast Mariners 36%, draw 23%, Newcastle Jets 42%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Central Coast Mariners v Newcastle JetsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Central Coast Mariners win36%

Draw23%

Newcastle Jets win42%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 09:40

RoundMatchday 1

Line-ups

Central Coast Mariners

4-4-2

Newcastle Jets

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Central Coast Mariners

Newcastle Jets

87Days since last match4

Last match: 22 July · Australia Cup

Last match: 13 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Central Coast Mariners	0	0	0
6	Newcastle Jets	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Central Coast Mariners

4-4-2

30 Andrew Redmayne

15 Storm Roux

3 Diesel Herrington

12 Noah Mccann

5 Lucas Mauragis

72 Ali Auglah

6 Haine Eames

8 Chris Donnell

39 Alexander Bolton

37 Bailey Brandtman

9 Oliver Lavale

Coach · –

Substitutes

45 · Jesse Mantell

22 · Arthur De Lima

51 · Ty Mckibbin

43 · Luke Becvinovski

17 · Presley Ortiz

50 · Jai Ajanovic

41 · Shumba Mutokoyi

Newcastle Jets

4-1-4-1

1 James Nicholas Delianov

22 Joel Bertolissio

5 Joe Shaughnessy

39 Thomas Kevin Aquilina

23 Daniel Wilmering

14 Max Burgess

11 Joe Lolley

28 Will Dobson

27 Julian Recchia

43 Xavier Bertoncello

8 Patrick Wood

Coach · –

Substitutes

6 · Zane Schreiber

10 · Zach Clough

64 · Jesse Hill

9 · Nikolaos Vergos

17 · Ethan Debono

40 · Jordan Baylis

2 · Alex Grant

Our number · newcastle jets winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market49%

Us42%

~~Market~~49%

We make Newcastle Jets a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Central Coast Mariners v Newcastle Jets~~1.58 – 1.73

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~5 v 6

~~The market · Newcastle Jets win~~49% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Newcastle Jets win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Central Coast Mariners win	36%	27%	+9
Draw	23%	23%	0
Newcastle Jets win	42%	49%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	64%	67%	−3
Both teams to score	65%	67%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	84%	85%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	42%	47%	−5
Central Coast Mariners or draw	58%	51%	+7
Central Coast Mariners clean sheet	18%	–	–
Newcastle Jets clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 3.8 6.5 5.5 3.2 1 5.9 9.9 8.4 4.9 2.2 2 4.6 7.7 6.6 3.8 3 2.5 4.1 3.5 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Central Coast Mariners down, Newcastle Jets across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 835 A-League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A-League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Central Coast Mariners at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Newcastle Jets away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Central Coast Mariners, 1.73 for Newcastle Jets. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NEW 4–0 CEN · CEN 0–0 NEW · CEN 3–2 NEW · NEW 6–0 CEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · A-League this season

CENTRAL COAST MARINERS

No matches in our record yet.

NEWCASTLE JETS

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Auckland	1	+2	3
2	Sydney	1	0	1
3	Western Sydney Wanderers	1	0	1
4	Adelaide United	0	0	0
5	Central Coast Mariners	0	0	0
6	Newcastle Jets	0	0	0
7	Perth Glory	0	0	0
8	Brisbane Roar	0	0	0
9	Wellington Phoenix	0	0	0
10	Melbourne Victory	0	0	0
11	Macarthur	0	0	0
12	Melbourne City	1	−2	0