Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory prediction · A-League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 12:31

Brisbane Roar 2–1 Perth Glory BRISBANE ROAR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brisbane Roar win~~45%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.459

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.501

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brisbane Roar win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Brisbane Roar was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–30
1′KICK-OFF Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' N. Maieroni · Brisbane Roar
28′We published Brisbane Roar at 45%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–10
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Brisbane Roar 1–0 Perth Glory
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Brisbane Roar win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
29′J. Vidic scores for Brisbane Roar on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–10
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
42′We published Brisbane Roar at 45%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–2
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Brisbane Roar 2–0 Perth Glory
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Brisbane Roar win: 45% at kick-off, 93% now
43′42′: Nam Tae-Hee on the scoresheet for Brisbane Roar, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' J. King · Brisbane Roar
45′SECOND HALF Brisbane Roar 2–0 Perth Glory
46′HALF-TIME Brisbane Roar 2–0 Perth Glory
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Perth Glory · On: J. Kucharski · Off: A. Lebib
54′We published Brisbane Roar at 45%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Brisbane Roar win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
59′We published Brisbane Roar at 45%. Our model now makes it 77%. 2–1 · 77–18–4
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Brisbane Roar 2–1 Perth Glory
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Brisbane Roar win: 45% at kick-off, 77% now
60′Perth Glory pull one back on 60′ through M. Ellis. 2–1. 2–1 · 78–18–4
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Perth Glory · On: M. Ellis · Off: P. Jacobsz
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Perth Glory · On: G. De Abreu · Off: S. Despotovski
61′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 78–18–4
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' J. Vidic · Brisbane Roar
65′We published Brisbane Roar at 45%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Brisbane Roar · On: H. Bility · Off: M. Stajic
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Brisbane Roar · On: M. Ilic · Off: V. Postolachi
74′We published Brisbane Roar at 45%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Brisbane Roar win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Brisbane Roar · On: N. Amanatidis · Off: S. James Ngor
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Brisbane Roar · On: E. Shaw · Off: T. Francois
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Perth Glory · On: S. Kukucka · Off: S. Colakovski
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' N. Amanatidis · Brisbane Roar
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Brisbane Roar · On: J. Nasso · Off: T. Russell
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Perth Glory · On: J. O'Shea · Off: T. Lawrence
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Brisbane Roar win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' J. Kucharski · Perth Glory
FTFULL TIME Brisbane Roar 2–1 Perth Glory
FTBrisbane Roar 2–1 Perth Glory · Brisbane Roar win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brisbane Roar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Brisbane Roar 45%, draw 25%, Perth Glory 31%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Brisbane Roar v Perth GloryBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Brisbane Roar win45%

Draw25%

Perth Glory win31%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 2

VenueSuncorp Stadium

Line-ups

Brisbane Roar

3-5-2

Perth Glory

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brisbane Roar

Perth Glory

75Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Aug · Australia Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · A-League

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Brisbane Roar	0	0	0
10	Perth Glory	1	−1	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Brisbane Roar

3-5-2

40 George Plusnin

77 Milorad Stajić

5 Tom Aldred

16 Joel King

13 Tate Russell

10 Tae Hee Nam

6 Noah Maieroni

8 Tyrese Francois

19 Sabit James Ngor

9 Virgiliu Postolachi

17 Justin Vidic

Coach · –

Substitutes

15 · Hosine Bility

11 · Marko Ilic

41 · Emmet Shaw

22 · Nathan Amanatidis

2 · Jacob Nasso

1 · Dean Bouzanis

14 · Emin Durakovic

Perth Glory

4-4-2

1 Matt Sutton

30 Tadiwanashe Kuzamba

18 Cher Deng

5 Lachlan Jackson

24 Andriano Lebib

7 Stefan Colakovski

25 Sebastian Despotovski

16 Lucas Scicluna

3 Sam Sutton

17 Pieter Jacobsz

10 Tom Lawrence

Coach · –

Substitutes

9 · Jaiden Kucharski

21 · Matthew Ellis

39 · Giovanni De Abreu

11 · Sebastian Kukucka

8 · Jay O'Shea

29 · Daniel Solsky

44 · Riley Foxe

Our number · brisbane roar winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 22 Oct 03:51 · locked at kick-off

45% The market42%

Us45%

~~Market~~42%

We make Brisbane Roar a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory~~1.57 – 1.25

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~9 v 10

~~The market · Brisbane Roar win~~42% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Brisbane Roar win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brisbane Roar win	45%	42%	+3
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Perth Glory win	31%	30%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	53%	0
Both teams to score	56%	57%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	75%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	32%	−1
Brisbane Roar or draw	69%	70%	−1
Brisbane Roar clean sheet	29%	–	–
Perth Glory clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.2 7.6 4.7 1 9.5 11.5 7.2 3.0 2 7.3 9.0 5.6 2.3 3 3.9 4.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brisbane Roar down, Perth Glory across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 839 A-League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A-League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brisbane Roar at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Perth Glory away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Brisbane Roar, 1.25 for Perth Glory. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PER 2–1 BRI · BRI 1–1 PER · PER 1–2 BRI · PER 1–3 BRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · A-League this season · since 17 Oct

BRISBANE ROAR

No matches in our record yet.

PERTH GLORY

L1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Auckland	1	+2	3
2	Wellington Phoenix	1	+1	3
3	Macarthur	1	+1	3
4	Central Coast Mariners	1	0	1
5	Newcastle Jets	1	0	1
6	Sydney	1	0	1
7	Western Sydney Wanderers	1	0	1
8	Adelaide United	0	0	0
9	Brisbane Roar	0	0	0
10	Perth Glory	1	−1	0
11	Melbourne Victory	1	−1	0
12	Melbourne City	1	−2	0