Brisbane Roar v Auckland prediction · A-League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Brisbane RoarDrawAuckland

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 09:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Auckland 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Auckland are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Brisbane Roar 24%, draw 24%, Auckland 51%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Brisbane Roar v AucklandBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Brisbane Roar win24%

Draw24%

Auckland win51%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 3

VenueSuncorp Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brisbane Roar

Auckland

7Days since last match6

Last match: 23 Oct · A-League

Last match: 24 Oct · A-League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Brisbane Roar	1	+1	3
5	Auckland	2	−1	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · auckland winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

51% The market45%

Us51%

~~Market~~45%

We make Auckland a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Brisbane Roar v Auckland~~1.06 – 1.66

~~Form · A-League this season · since 17 Oct~~W1 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 3~~3 v 5

~~The market · Auckland win~~45% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Auckland win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brisbane Roar win	24%	28%	−4
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Auckland win	51%	45%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	51%	52%	−1
Both teams to score	52%	55%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	74%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	31%	−2
Brisbane Roar or draw	49%	55%	−6
Brisbane Roar clean sheet	19%	–	–
Auckland clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.8 11.0 9.1 5.1 2.2 1 7.1 11.4 9.4 5.2 2.2 2 3.7 6.0 4.9 2.7 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brisbane Roar down, Auckland across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 840 A-League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A-League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brisbane Roar at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Auckland away: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Brisbane Roar, 1.66 for Auckland. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BRI 0–2 AUC · AUC 1–1 BRI · BRI 0–2 AUC · AUC 2–0 BRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · A-League this season · since 17 Oct

BRISBANE ROAR

W2–1

AUCKLAND

WL3–1 · 2–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Western Sydney Wanderers	2	+3	4
2	Macarthur	2	+1	4
3	Brisbane Roar	1	+1	3
4	Wellington Phoenix	1	+1	3
5	Auckland	2	−1	3
6	Newcastle Jets	2	0	2
7	Central Coast Mariners	1	0	1
8	Sydney	1	0	1
9	Melbourne Victory	2	−1	1
10	Melbourne City	2	−2	1
11	Adelaide United	0	0	0
12	Perth Glory	2	−2	0