Auckland v Melbourne City

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Auckland win at 46%.
2. 1′KICK-OFF Auckland v Melbourne City
3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Auckland 46% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–28
4. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' S. Cosgrove · Auckland
5. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' A. Behich · Melbourne City
6. 35′We said Auckland at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–19–7
7. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Auckland 1–0 Melbourne City
8. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Auckland win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
9. 36′35′: L. Bayliss on the scoresheet for Auckland, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–19–7
10. 37′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 74–19–7
11. 38′We said Auckland at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
12. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Auckland 1–1 Melbourne City
13. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Auckland win: 46% at kick-off, 37% now
14. 43′Melbourne City level it on 42′ through Q. MacNicol. 1–1. 1–1 · 37–39–25
15. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Auckland win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
16. 45′SECOND HALF Auckland 1–1 Melbourne City
17. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Auckland win 35%)
18. 48′HALF-TIME Auckland 1–1 Melbourne City
19. 50′We said Auckland at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–43–23
20. 52′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 77–18–5
21. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Auckland 2–1 Melbourne City
22. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Auckland win: 46% at kick-off, 77% now
23. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Auckland win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 18%)
24. 53′L. Bayliss scores for Auckland on 53′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 77–18–5
25. 60′We said Auckland at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
26. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Melbourne City · On: M. Caputo · Off: A. Nabbout
27. 72′We said Auckland at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
28. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Auckland win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
29. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Melbourne City · On: M. Leckie · Off: B. Kutleshi
30. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Melbourne City · On: L. Wong · Off: Q. MacNicol
31. 80′We said Auckland at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
32. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Auckland · On: V. Fitzharris · Off: L. Bayliss
33. 85′We said Auckland at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
34. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Auckland 3–1 Melbourne City
35. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Auckland win: 46% at kick-off, over 99% now
36. 86′85′: L. Brook on the scoresheet for Auckland, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
37. 86′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
38. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Auckland · On: I. Prins · Off: S. Cosgrove Corrected
39. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Auckland · On: D. Normann · Off: L. Brook Corrected
40. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' L. Rogerson · Auckland
41. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Auckland · On: C. Elliot · Off: J. Brimmer Corrected
42. FTFULL TIME Auckland 3–1 Melbourne City
43. FTAuckland 3–1 Melbourne City · Auckland win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.