Western Sydney Wanderers W v Melbourne Victory W prediction · A-League Women

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Western Sydney Wanderers W 0–1 Melbourne Victory W MELBOURNE VICTORY W WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Melbourne Victory W win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.341

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Melbourne Victory W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Western Sydney Wanderers W 25%, draw 23%, Melbourne Victory W 52%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Western Sydney Wanderers W v Melbourne Victory WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Western Sydney Wanderers W win25%

Draw23%

Melbourne Victory W win52%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 05:00

RoundMatchday 1

VenueWanderers Football Park

Line-ups

Western Sydney Wanderers W

Melbourne Victory W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Western Sydney Wanderers W

Melbourne Victory W

202Days since last match161

Last match: 29 Mar · A-League Women

Last match: 9 May · A-League Women

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Melbourne Victory W	0	0	0
8	Western Sydney Wanderers W	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Western Sydney Wanderers W

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Langman

5 A. Bennett

4 S. Bjorneboe

2 T. Jaber

21 L. Pickett

10 R. Pollicina

15 S. Palywoda

8 S. Sakalis

11 B. Miller

9 E. Bahr

19 T. Younis

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · B. Edwards

7 · S. Iredale

24 · N. Fazzari

34 · R. Betro

16 · E. Fragale

6 · I. Chidiac

17 · A. Ng-Saad

Melbourne Victory W

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Newbon

19 Z. McMeeken

3 C. Bunge

18 K. Morrison

16 A. Sutter

14 A. Woods

66 A. Jancevski

13 A. Beard

9 H. Furphy

10 S. Saveska

8 S. Harding

Coach · Jeffrey Hopkins

Substitutes

25 · A. Aoyagi

4 · C. Blissett

2 · S. Leach

7 · E. O'Grady

28 · S. Techera

21 · J. Millar

Our number · melbourne victory w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Melbourne Victory W a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.6, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Western Sydney Wanderers W v Melbourne Victory W~~1.01 – 1.62

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~8 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Western Sydney Wanderers W win	25%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Melbourne Victory W win	52%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Western Sydney Wanderers W or draw	48%	–	–
Western Sydney Wanderers W clean sheet	20%	–	–
Melbourne Victory W clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.8%

0123450 6.6 12.8 9.4 5.1 2.2 1 8.4 10.6 9.2 5.0 2.1 2 3.8 5.8 4.6 2.5 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Western Sydney Wanderers W down, Melbourne Victory W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 578 A-League Women matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A-League Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Western Sydney Wanderers W at home: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Melbourne Victory W away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Western Sydney Wanderers W, 1.62 for Melbourne Victory W. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MEL 1–0 WES · WES 1–4 MEL · WES 0–1 MEL · MEL 4–4 WES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · A-League Women this season

WESTERN SYDNEY WANDERERS W

No matches in our record yet.

MELBOURNE VICTORY W

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Adelaide United W	0	0	0
2	Brisbane Roar FC W	0	0	0
3	Newcastle Jets FC W	0	0	0
4	Canberra United W	0	0	0
5	Sydney FC W	0	0	0
6	Melbourne Victory W	0	0	0
7	Perth Glory FC W	0	0	0
8	Western Sydney Wanderers W	0	0	0
9	Melbourne City W	0	0	0
10	Wellington Phoenix W	0	0	0
11	Central Coast Mariners W	0	0	0