Wellington Phoenix W v Melbourne Victory W prediction · A-League Women

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Wellington Phoenix WDrawMelbourne Victory W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Wellington Phoenix W 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Wellington Phoenix W just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Wellington Phoenix W 39%, draw 24%, Melbourne Victory W 37%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Wellington Phoenix W v Melbourne Victory WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Wellington Phoenix W win39%

Draw24%

Melbourne Victory W win37%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:15

RoundMatchday 2

VenueSky Stadium

RefereeS. Jones

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wellington Phoenix W

Melbourne Victory W

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · A-League Women

Last match: 17 Oct · A-League Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Melbourne Victory W	1	+1	3
9	Wellington Phoenix W	1	−1	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wellington phoenix w winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Wellington Phoenix W a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wellington Phoenix W v Melbourne Victory W~~1.28 – 1.24

~~Form · A-League Women this season · since 17 Oct~~W0 D0 L1 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 3~~9 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wellington Phoenix W win	39%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Melbourne Victory W win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Wellington Phoenix W or draw	63%	–	–
Wellington Phoenix W clean sheet	29%	–	–
Melbourne Victory W clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.6%

0123450 7.1 11.3 6.2 2.6 1 11.6 11.3 7.7 3.2 2 6.6 7.9 4.9 2.1 3 2.9 3.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wellington Phoenix W down, Melbourne Victory W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 583 A-League Women matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A-League Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.89 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wellington Phoenix W at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Melbourne Victory W away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Wellington Phoenix W, 1.24 for Melbourne Victory W. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.89

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~MEL 1–1 WEL · WEL 1–0 MEL · WEL 1–1 MEL · MEL 1–1 WEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · A-League Women this season · since 17 Oct

WELLINGTON PHOENIX W

L1–2

MELBOURNE VICTORY W

W1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Central Coast Mariners W	1	+2	3
2	Western Sydney Wanderers W	2	+1	3
3	Melbourne City W	1	+1	3
4	Melbourne Victory W	1	+1	3
5	Perth Glory FC W	1	+1	3
6	Adelaide United W	1	0	1
7	Sydney FC W	1	0	1
8	Canberra United W	0	0	0
9	Wellington Phoenix W	1	−1	0
10	Newcastle Jets FC W	1	−1	0
11	Brisbane Roar FC W	2	−4	0