Wellington Phoenix W v Melbourne City W prediction · A-League Women

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 03:28

Wellington Phoenix W 1–2 Melbourne City W MELBOURNE CITY W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Melbourne City W win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.478

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 1 alert

0′Before kick-off: we said Melbourne City W win at 44%.
0′Much as we predicted: Melbourne City W was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 33–23–44
FTFULL TIME Wellington Phoenix W 1–2 Melbourne City W
FTWellington Phoenix W 1–2 Melbourne City W · Melbourne City W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Melbourne City W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wellington Phoenix W 33%, draw 23%, Melbourne City W 44%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Wellington Phoenix W v Melbourne City WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Wellington Phoenix W win33%

Draw23%

Melbourne City W win44%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 00:15

RoundMatchday 1

VenueSky Stadium

Line-ups

Wellington Phoenix W

Melbourne City W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wellington Phoenix W

Melbourne City W

154Days since last match150

Last match: 16 May · A-League Women

Last match: 20 May · AFC Women's Champions League

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Melbourne City W	0	0	0
8	Wellington Phoenix W	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Wellington Phoenix W

Formation not confirmed

1 V. Esson

5 E. Walker

4 M. Barry

6 A. Erceg

23 B. Nunn

13 T. Yallop

24 P. Vlok

7 G. Jale

11 M. Elliott

17 I. Riley

31 M. Woods

Coach · Beverly Priestman

Substitutes

22 · A. Danieli

16 · M. Van der Meer

3 · L. Wall

25 · A. Eglinton

21 · S. Candy

20 · E. Main

26 · L. Brazendale

Melbourne City W

Formation not confirmed

24 M. Mieres

16 K. Roestbakken

4 J. J. Nash

22 T. Ray

8 M. Hayashi

12 S. McMahon

11 D. Jackson

21 A. Keane

5 A. Medwin

9 C. Vine

14 M. Ayres

Coach · Michael Matricciani

Substitutes

23 · M. Barbieri

13 · R. Stott

26 · C. Biggs

10 · A. Prakash

27 · I. Rako

15 · T. Heatley

20 · K. McGroarty

Our number · melbourne city w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Melbourne City W a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.5, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wellington Phoenix W v Melbourne City W~~1.24 – 1.48

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~8 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wellington Phoenix W win	33%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Melbourne City W win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Wellington Phoenix W or draw	56%	–	–
Wellington Phoenix W clean sheet	23%	–	–
Melbourne City W clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.8 10.9 7.2 3.6 1 9.3 10.8 8.6 4.3 2 5.1 7.3 5.3 2.7 3 2.1 3.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wellington Phoenix W down, Melbourne City W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 578 A-League Women matches up to 16 May 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A-League Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.78 goals a meeting; 6 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wellington Phoenix W at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Melbourne City W away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Wellington Phoenix W, 1.48 for Melbourne City W. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.78

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~MEL 3–1 WEL · WEL 1–2 MEL · MEL 1–0 WEL · WEL 0–1 MEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · A-League Women this season

WELLINGTON PHOENIX W

No matches in our record yet.

MELBOURNE CITY W

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Melbourne Victory W	1	+1	3
2	Perth Glory FC W	1	+1	3
3	Adelaide United W	0	0	0
4	Brisbane Roar FC W	0	0	0
5	Canberra United W	0	0	0
6	Sydney FC W	0	0	0
7	Melbourne City W	0	0	0
8	Wellington Phoenix W	0	0	0
9	Central Coast Mariners W	0	0	0
10	Newcastle Jets FC W	1	−1	0
11	Western Sydney Wanderers W	1	−1	0