Sydney FC W v Adelaide United W prediction · A-League Women

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:30

Sydney FC W 2–2 Adelaide United W SYDNEY FC W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sydney FC W win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.859

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sydney FC W win at 43%.
2′KICK-OFF Sydney FC W v Adelaide United W
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Sydney FC W 1–0 Adelaide United W
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Sydney FC W win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Sydney FC W 1–1 Adelaide United W
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Sydney FC W win: 43% at kick-off, 42% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Sydney FC W win 34%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Sydney FC W win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
49′SECOND HALF Sydney FC W 1–1 Adelaide United W
50′HALF-TIME Sydney FC W 1–1 Adelaide United W
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Sydney FC W 2–1 Adelaide United W
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Sydney FC W win: 43% at kick-off, 77% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Sydney FC W win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 19%)
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Sydney FC W win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Sydney FC W win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Sydney FC W 2–2 Adelaide United W
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Sydney FC W win: 43% at kick-off, 6% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Sydney FC W win 6%)
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Sydney FC W win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
FTFULL TIME Sydney FC W 2–2 Adelaide United W
FTSydney FC W 2–2 Adelaide United W · Sydney FC W win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sydney FC W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sydney FC W 43%, draw 25%, Adelaide United W 32%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Sydney FC W v Adelaide United WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sydney FC W win43%

Draw25%

Adelaide United W win32%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 06:30

RoundMatchday 1

VenueSydney Olympic Park Athletic Centre

RefereeN. Moss

Line-ups

Sydney FC W

Adelaide United W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sydney FC W

Adelaide United W

197Days since last match176

Last match: 4 Apr · A-League Women

Last match: 25 Apr · A-League Women

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Adelaide United W	0	0	0
6	Sydney FC W	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sydney FC W

Formation not confirmed

30 T. Robertson

24 J. Wilson

3 C. McLean

27 P. Channing

28 K. Roling

14 O. Price

11 K. Dulaney

26 M. Caspers

13 R. Cohn

39 A. Sutton

2 F. Webber

Coach · Ante Juric

Substitutes

31 · C. McCredie

12 · N. Tobin

25 · L. Nada

19 · A. Chessari

38 · M. Mifsud

35 · P. Tay

Adelaide United W

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Melegh

3 C. Cicco

4 H. Murray

16 I. Yakel

2 E. Hodgson

8 P. Zois

6 M. Taranto

15 A. Taranto

9 K. Meyers

10 C. Dawber

12 C. Rossi

Coach · –

Substitutes

18 · A. Millar

23 · T. Harris

5 · I. Breier

7 · E. Murray

25 · L. Gooch

11 · T. Salvestrin

29 · D. Drawwater

Our number · sydney fc w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Sydney FC W a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sydney FC W v Adelaide United W~~1.34 – 1.10

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~6 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sydney FC W win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sydney FC W win	43%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Adelaide United W win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Sydney FC W or draw	68%	–	–
Sydney FC W clean sheet	34%	–	–
Adelaide United W clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 7.8 11.0 5.3 2.0 1 13.0 11.3 6.9 2.6 2 7.7 8.3 4.6 3 3.5 3.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sydney FC W down, Adelaide United W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 582 A-League Women matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A-League Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.22 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sydney FC W at home: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Adelaide United W away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Sydney FC W, 1.10 for Adelaide United W. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.22

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~SYD 0–0 ADE · ADE 0–0 SYD · ADE 2–1 SYD · SYD 2–3 ADE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · A-League Women this season

SYDNEY FC W

No matches in our record yet.

ADELAIDE UNITED W

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Central Coast Mariners W	1	+2	3
2	Melbourne Victory W	1	+1	3
3	Perth Glory FC W	1	+1	3
4	Adelaide United W	0	0	0
5	Canberra United W	0	0	0
6	Sydney FC W	0	0	0
7	Melbourne City W	0	0	0
8	Wellington Phoenix W	0	0	0
9	Newcastle Jets FC W	1	−1	0
10	Western Sydney Wanderers W	1	−1	0
11	Brisbane Roar FC W	1	−2	0