Central Coast Mariners W v Adelaide United W prediction · A-League Women

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Central Coast Mariners WDrawAdelaide United W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 06:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Central Coast Mariners W 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Central Coast Mariners W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Central Coast Mariners W 54%, draw 22%, Adelaide United W 24%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Central Coast Mariners W v Adelaide United WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Central Coast Mariners W win54%

Draw22%

Adelaide United W win24%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 06:00

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Central Coast Mariners W

Adelaide United W

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · A-League Women

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · central coast mariners w winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Central Coast Mariners W a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Central Coast Mariners W v Adelaide United W~~1.72 – 1.05

~~Form · A-League Women this season · since 17 Oct~~W2 D0 L0 · W0 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 2~~1 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Central Coast Mariners W win	54%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Adelaide United W win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Central Coast Mariners W or draw	76%	–	–
Central Coast Mariners W clean sheet	36%	–	–
Adelaide United W clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.8%

0123450 5.7 7.6 3.5 1 11.8 10.3 5.8 2.1 2 9.2 9.4 4.9 3 5.3 5.4 2.8 4 2.3 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Central Coast Mariners W down, Adelaide United W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 587 A-League Women matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A-League Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Central Coast Mariners W at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Adelaide United W away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Central Coast Mariners W, 1.05 for Adelaide United W. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ADE 1–0 CEN · CEN 3–0 ADE · ADE 1–0 CEN · CEN 0–1 ADE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · A-League Women this season · since 17 Oct

CENTRAL COAST MARINERS W

WW4–2 · 5–1

ADELAIDE UNITED W

DD2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Central Coast Mariners W	2	+6	6
2	Perth Glory FC W	2	+1	4
3	Western Sydney Wanderers W	2	+1	3
4	Melbourne City W	1	+1	3
5	Melbourne Victory W	1	+1	3
6	Adelaide United W	2	0	2
7	Sydney FC W	1	0	1
8	Wellington Phoenix W	1	−1	0
9	Newcastle Jets FC W	1	−1	0
10	Brisbane Roar FC W	2	−4	0
11	Canberra United W	1	−4	0