Brisbane Roar FC W v Central Coast Mariners W prediction · A-League Women

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Brisbane Roar FC W 2–4 Central Coast Mariners W CENTRAL COAST MARINERS W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Central Coast Mariners W win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.571

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Central Coast Mariners W win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Brisbane Roar FC W v Central Coast Mariners W
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Brisbane Roar FC W 0–1 Central Coast Mariners W
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Central Coast Mariners W win: 39% at kick-off, 62% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Central Coast Mariners W win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Brisbane Roar FC W win 18%)
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Brisbane Roar FC W 1–1 Central Coast Mariners W
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Central Coast Mariners W win: 39% at kick-off, 36% now
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Brisbane Roar FC W 1–2 Central Coast Mariners W
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Central Coast Mariners W win: 39% at kick-off, 67% now
45′SECOND HALF Brisbane Roar FC W 1–2 Central Coast Mariners W
46′HALF-TIME Brisbane Roar FC W 1–2 Central Coast Mariners W
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Central Coast Mariners W win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Brisbane Roar FC W 1–3 Central Coast Mariners W
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Central Coast Mariners W win: 39% at kick-off, 93% now
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Brisbane Roar FC W 1–4 Central Coast Mariners W
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Central Coast Mariners W win: 39% at kick-off, over 99% now
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Brisbane Roar FC W 2–4 Central Coast Mariners W
FTFULL TIME Brisbane Roar FC W 2–4 Central Coast Mariners W
FTBrisbane Roar FC W 2–4 Central Coast Mariners W · Central Coast Mariners W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Central Coast Mariners W just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Brisbane Roar FC W 39%, draw 22%, Central Coast Mariners W 39%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Brisbane Roar FC W v Central Coast Mariners WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Brisbane Roar FC W win39%

Draw22%

Central Coast Mariners W win39%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 07:00

RoundMatchday 1

VenueSpencer Park

Line-ups

Brisbane Roar FC W

Central Coast Mariners W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brisbane Roar FC W

Central Coast Mariners W

160Days since last match196

Last match: 10 May · A-League Women

Last match: 4 Apr · A-League Women

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Brisbane Roar FC W	0	0	0
11	Central Coast Mariners W	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Brisbane Roar FC W

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Lincoln

24 E. Roach

5 I. Hodgson

27 R. Curtis

8 J. Studer

22 N. Tathem

7 M. Agnew

14 Z. Kruger

16 A. Smothers

4 K. Stephenson

3 D. Brown

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · T. Franco

2 · A. Martin

15 · H. Long

23 · I. Hoyos

21 · K. Guillou

17 · M. Markovski

19 · L. Punch

Central Coast Mariners W

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Aquino

11 D. Matos

2 R. Lake

18 King

5 C. Lancaster

16 T. Quilligan

14 G. Kraszula

9 S. Halmarick

22 P. Trimis

21 E. Familton

8 T. Kapetanellis

Coach · –

Substitutes

15 · A. Grove

6 · R. Walker

13 · K. Buchanan

3 · E. Barwick-Grey

7 · M. Witz

17 · K. De Domizio

Our number · central coast mariners w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Central Coast Mariners W a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Brisbane Roar FC W v Central Coast Mariners W~~1.54 – 1.54

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~2 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brisbane Roar FC W win	39%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Central Coast Mariners W win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Brisbane Roar FC W or draw	61%	–	–
Brisbane Roar FC W clean sheet	22%	–	–
Central Coast Mariners W clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 3.9 8.2 5.5 2.9 1 8.2 9.8 8.1 4.2 2 5.5 8.1 6.2 3.2 3 2.8 4.2 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brisbane Roar FC W down, Central Coast Mariners W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 578 A-League Women matches up to 16 May 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: A-League Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.17 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brisbane Roar FC W at home: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Central Coast Mariners W away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Brisbane Roar FC W, 1.54 for Central Coast Mariners W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BRI 2–2 CEN · CEN 3–2 BRI · CEN 2–1 BRI · BRI 2–1 CEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · A-League Women this season

BRISBANE ROAR FC W

No matches in our record yet.

CENTRAL COAST MARINERS W

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Adelaide United W	0	0	0
2	Brisbane Roar FC W	0	0	0
3	Newcastle Jets FC W	0	0	0
4	Canberra United W	0	0	0
5	Sydney FC W	0	0	0
6	Melbourne Victory W	0	0	0
7	Perth Glory FC W	0	0	0
8	Western Sydney Wanderers W	0	0	0
9	Melbourne City W	0	0	0
10	Wellington Phoenix W	0	0	0
11	Central Coast Mariners W	0	0	0