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Model 1.2

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River Plate v Estrella

River Plate
1–1Full time
Estrella

Division di Honor · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 04:35
River Plate 1–1 Estrella RIVER PLATE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said River Plate win45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.046

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

River Plate are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: River Plate 45%, draw 17%, Estrella 38%. Over 2.5 goals 91%, both teams to score 86%.

The AI’s read on River Plate v EstrellaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 08:31 · locked at kick-off

River Plate win45%
Draw17%
Estrella win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 01:30

RoundMatchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

River Plate

Estrella

146Days since last match121

Last match: 31 May · Division di Honor

Last match: 25 June · Division di Honor

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · river plate winFirst published 23 Oct 08:31 · locked at kick-off
45% The market–
Us45%

We make River Plate a 45% chance to win. The model expects 3.0–2.7, and 2–2 is the single most likely score at 5%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · River Plate v Estrella2.97 – 2.72

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
River Plate win45%––
Draw17%––
Estrella win38%––
Over 2.5 goals91%––
Both teams to score86%––
Over 1.5 goals97%––
Over 3.5 goals79%––
River Plate or draw62%––
River Plate clean sheet8%––
Estrella clean sheet6%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 5.4%
0123450 1 3.2 4.0 3.5 2.3 2 4.3 5.4 4.6 3.1 3 3.9 5.0 4.3 2.9 4 2.8 3.6 3.1 2.1 5 2.2
under 2% 5% 12%+River Plate down, Estrella across0–5 goals a side shown (84.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting5.20
Over 2.510 of 10
Both scored9 of 10
Last meetingsEST 1–5 RIV · RIV 3–5 EST · RIV 2–2 EST · EST 2–3 RIV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division di Honor this season

RIVER PLATE

No matches in our record yet.

ESTRELLA

No matches in our record yet.