Home › Football › Premier League › Van v Gandzasar

Van v Gandzasar

Van

2–0Full time

Gandzasar

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Charentsavan City Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Van 2–0 Gandzasar VAN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Van win~~51%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.358

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.709

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Van win at 51%.
2′KICK-OFF Van v Gandzasar
4′Much as we predicted: Van was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–26–24
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Gandzasar
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Van
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Van win: 51% at kick-off, 40% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Van
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Van
45′HALF-TIME Van 0–0 Gandzasar
48′Van find the net on 52′. 0–0. 0–0 · 38–41–21
48′SECOND HALF Van 0–0 Gandzasar
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Van 1–0 Gandzasar
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Gandzasar
70′We published Van at 51%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Van win: 51% at kick-off, 85% now
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Gandzasar
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Van 2–0 Gandzasar
90′A goal for Van on 81′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Van win: 51% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Van 2–0 Gandzasar
FTVan 2–0 Gandzasar · Van win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Van win51%

Draw24%

Gandzasar win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Charentsavan City Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Van

Formation not confirmed

45 D. Bokov

2 J. Torres

7 P. Avetisyan

10 N. Manukyan

15 A. S. Akanni

17 K. Sammani

21 C. Lweendo

27 J. Gaba

33 T. Voskanyan

90 I. Ajanda

91 D. Polonskyi

Coach · Aleksandr Mikhailov

Substitutes

16 · P. Ayvazyan

9 · T. Sargsyan

11 · A. Karapetyan

14 · P. E. Obinna

25 · E. Mensah

28 · K. Boukari

36 · V. Makhsudyan

38 · T. Gevorgyan

53 · A. Hakobyan

77 · Brayann Santiago

13 · Alex

99 · R. Jesus

Gandzasar

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Matevosyan

29 Decio Neto

12 A. Khachatryan

55 S. Kanda

6 Atila

14 M. Ahouangbo

8 E. Lizalda

18 A. Avanesyan

11 Joao Adriano

9 K. Doumbia

7 B. Mani

Coach · –

Substitutes

77 · D. Davtyan

13 · A. Ayvazov

33 · Robson

2 · A. Mikhayelyan

34 · D. Titkov

4 · H. Gevorgyan

79 · T. Rocha

21 · L. Reis

10 · A. Israelyan

3 · M. Kankanyan

5 · S. Grigoryan

20 · A. Dabo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Van

Formation not confirmed

45 D. Bokov

2 J. Torres

7 P. Avetisyan

10 N. Manukyan

15 A. S. Akanni

17 K. Sammani

21 C. Lweendo

27 J. Gaba

33 T. Voskanyan

90 I. Ajanda

91 D. Polonskyi

Coach · Aleksandr Mikhailov

Substitutes

16 · P. Ayvazyan

9 · T. Sargsyan

11 · A. Karapetyan

14 · P. E. Obinna

25 · E. Mensah

28 · K. Boukari

36 · V. Makhsudyan

38 · T. Gevorgyan

53 · A. Hakobyan

77 · Brayann Santiago

13 · Alex

99 · R. Jesus

Gandzasar

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Matevosyan

29 Decio Neto

12 A. Khachatryan

55 S. Kanda

6 Atila

14 M. Ahouangbo

8 E. Lizalda

18 A. Avanesyan

11 Joao Adriano

9 K. Doumbia

7 B. Mani

Coach · –

Substitutes

77 · D. Davtyan

13 · A. Ayvazov

33 · Robson

2 · A. Mikhayelyan

34 · D. Titkov

4 · H. Gevorgyan

79 · T. Rocha

21 · L. Reis

10 · A. Israelyan

3 · M. Kankanyan

5 · S. Grigoryan

20 · A. Dabo

Our number · van winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

51% The market32%

Us51%

~~Market~~32%

We make Van a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 19 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · van win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Van win	51%	32%	+19
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Gandzasar win	25%	42%	−17
Over 2.5 goals	49%	53%	−5
Both teams to score	50%	57%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	73%	76%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	27%	32%	−5
Van or draw	75%	58%	+17
Van clean sheet	37%	–	–
Gandzasar clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.9%

0123450 7.4 7.8 3.8 1 11.9 11.2 5.8 2.1 2 9.2 9.1 4.6 3 5.0 4.9 2.5 4 2.1 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Van down, Gandzasar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 861 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Van at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Gandzasar away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Van, 1.02 for Gandzasar. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~GAN 0–1 VAN · VAN 2–1 GAN · GAN 1–0 VAN · GAN 1–2 VAN

Form · last six in Premier League

VAN

LDLLWL0–2 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 0–2

GANDZASAR

LLLLLL0–1 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Noah	8	+16	24
2	Ararat-Armenia	8	+9	19
3	Pyunik Yerevan	8	+10	18
4	Alashkert	8	+12	15
5	Sardarapat	8	+2	12
6	FC Urartu	8	+2	11
7	Shirak	8	+1	10
8	Ararat	8	−7	9
9	BKMA	8	−2	8
10	Van	8	−17	4
11	Gandzasar	8	−12	3
12	Syunik	8	−14	2