Van v Ararat prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:01

Van 2–1 Ararat VAN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Van win~~46%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.433

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.612

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Van win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Van was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–25–29
1′KICK-OFF Van v Ararat
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Van
27′Ararat find the net on 27′. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–24–58
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Van 0–1 Ararat
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Van win: 46% at kick-off, 18% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Ararat win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Van win 42%)
28′We said Van at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–24–58
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 17–24–59
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Van win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
39′We said Van at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
41′A goal for Van on 40′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 38–36–26
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Van 1–1 Ararat
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Van win: 46% at kick-off, 38% now
45′HALF-TIME Van 1–1 Ararat
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Van
46′SECOND HALF Van 1–1 Ararat
48′R. Jesus scores for Van on 39′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 36–40–25
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Ararat win 62%)
52′We said Van at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–42–24
62′We said Van at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–50–21
64′Van score on 63′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 80–17–3
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Van 2–1 Ararat
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Van win: 46% at kick-off, 80% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Van win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 51%)
65′GOAL DISALLOWED · 65' Van
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Van win: 46% at kick-off, 27% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Van win 80%)
67′Van score on 67′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 81–16–3
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Van win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Van 2–1 Ararat
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Van win: 46% at kick-off, 81% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Van win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 55%)
68′We published Van at 46%. Our model now makes it 82%. 2–1 · 82–16–3
69′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 82–15–2
74′We published Van at 46%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Van win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
81′We published Van at 46%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Van
87′We published Van at 46%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Van win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Van
FTFULL TIME Van 2–1 Ararat
FTVan 2–1 Ararat · Van win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Van are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Van 46%, draw 25%, Ararat 29%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Van v AraratBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Van win46%

Draw25%

Ararat win29%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueCharentsavan City Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Van

Ararat

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Ararat	10	−7	11
10	Van	10	−18	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · van winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

46% The market36%

Us46%

~~Market~~36%

We make Van a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Van v Ararat~~1.60 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 11~~10 v 8

~~The market · Van win~~36% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Van win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Van win	46%	36%	+10
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Ararat win	29%	36%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	53%	49%	+4
Both teams to score	55%	54%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	73%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	31%	28%	+3
Van or draw	71%	64%	+7
Van clean sheet	31%	–	–
Ararat clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.4 7.4 4.5 1 9.7 11.4 6.8 2.8 2 7.7 8.9 5.3 2.2 3 4.2 4.8 2.9 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Van down, Ararat across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 874 Premier League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Van at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ararat away: 1.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Van, 1.21 for Ararat. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ARA 1–2 VAN · VAN 1–2 ARA · ARA 0–1 VAN · ARA 2–1 VAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

VAN

LLWLWL0–4 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 2–5

ARARAT

LLWWDD0–4 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Noah	10	+20	28
2	Ararat-Armenia	10	+10	23
3	Pyunik Yerevan	10	+15	22
4	Alashkert	10	+16	19
5	FC Urartu	11	+5	16
6	Sardarapat	11	−1	16
7	Shirak	10	−1	11
8	Ararat	10	−7	11
9	BKMA	10	−8	8
10	Van	10	−18	7
11	Syunik	10	−16	5
12	Gandzasar	10	−15	3