Syunik v Shirak prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 15:31

Syunik 2–0 Shirak SHIRAK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shirak win~~37%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.637

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.731

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shirak win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Shirak was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 34–29–37
1′KICK-OFF Syunik v Shirak
17′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Syunik
22′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Shirak
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Shirak win 32%)
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Shirak win 32%)
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Shirak win 32%)
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Shirak win 32%)
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Shirak win 32%)
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Shirak win 32%)
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Shirak win 31%)
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Shirak win 31%)
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Shirak win 31%)
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Shirak win 31%)
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Shirak win 31%)
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Shirak win 30%)
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Shirak win 30%)
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Shirak win 30%)
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Shirak win 30%)
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Shirak win 30%)
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Shirak win 29%)
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Shirak win 29%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Shirak win 29%)
45′SECOND HALF Syunik 0–0 Shirak
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Syunik 0–0 Shirak
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Syunik 1–0 Shirak
49′⚽ GOAL · 47' Syunik 1–0 Shirak · Kaique Santos
60′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Syunik
69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Shirak · On: S. Manukyan · Off: R. Gyamfi
80′⚽ GOAL · 81' Syunik 1–0 Shirak
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Syunik 2–0 Shirak · Kaique Santos
FTFULL TIME Syunik 2–0 Shirak
FTSyunik 2–0 Shirak · Shirak win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 13:01 · locked at kick-off

Syunik win35%

Draw28%

Shirak win37%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 13:00

VenueGandzasar stadium

Line-ups

Syunik

Shirak

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Syunik

Shirak

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Shirak	8	+1	10
12	Syunik	8	−14	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Syunik

Formation not confirmed

72 D. Sa

15 R. Belhadj

22 A. Melikyan

55 A. Litviakov

2 A. Galstyan

77 M. Silva

33 V. Hayrapetyan

30 G. Kalu

29 J. Brito

7 Kaique Santos

23 K. Enning

Coach · Igor Picusceac

Substitutes

90 · A. Ghukasyan

13 · A. Karapetyan

4 · A. Souassi

20 · P. Poghikyan

3 · G. Arakelyan

17 · E. Soghomonyan

19 · S. Sargsyan

21 · R. Annor

14 · A. Kwanye

9 · A. Hovhannisyan

11 · E. Grigoryan

26 · O. Okiki

Shirak

Formation not confirmed

55 L. Karapetyan

19 S. Tsarukyan

4 H. Mnatsakanyan

5 T. Sumbulyan

2 H. Pahlevanyan

20 R. Mkrtchyan

6 R. Misakyan

90 R. Gyamfi

7 N. Janoyan

10 D. Kodia

71 B. Mesamba

Coach · Vardan Bichakhchyan

Substitutes

11 · S. Manukyan

45 · V. Ermakov

22 · M. Tarloyan

3 · D. I. Coulibaly

25 · G. Akulyan

8 · L. Darbinyan

18 · S. Ghukasyan

77 · G. Ghumashyan

66 · V. Sargsyan

53 · M. Harutyunyan

27 · A. Karamoko Fofana

Our number · shirak winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 13:01 · locked at kick-off

37% The market42%

Us37%

~~Market~~42%

We make Shirak a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · shirak win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Syunik win	35%	31%	+4
Draw	28%	28%	0
Shirak win	37%	42%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	39%	50%	−11
Both teams to score	44%	54%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	65%	73%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	19%	29%	−10
Syunik or draw	63%	58%	+5
Syunik clean sheet	33%	–	–
Shirak clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 11.1 12.4 7.0 2.8 1 11.9 12.5 7.1 2.8 2 6.5 7.0 3.9 3 2.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Syunik down, Shirak across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 865 Premier League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.6% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Syunik at home: 0.00 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 1). Shirak away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Syunik, 1.14 for Shirak. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meeting of these two in Premier League since 2021 in our records. Only this competition's matches are held here: cup ties and meetings in other leagues are not, and we say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Premier League

SYUNIK

LDLDLL0–3 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 0–1

SHIRAK

WLWWLL1–0 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Noah	9	+20	27
2	Ararat-Armenia	9	+9	20
3	Pyunik Yerevan	8	+10	18
4	Alashkert	9	+12	16
5	FC Urartu	9	+2	12
6	Sardarapat	9	−2	12
7	Shirak	8	+1	10
8	Ararat	9	−7	10
9	BKMA	8	−2	8
10	Van	9	−15	7
11	Gandzasar	9	−14	3
12	Syunik	8	−14	2