Shirak v Alashkert prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Shirak 0–1 Alashkert ALASHKERT WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Alashkert win~~57%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.275

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.226

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alashkert win at 57%.
0′KICK-OFF Shirak v Alashkert
1′Much as we predicted: Alashkert was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 19–24–57
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Alashkert win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
41′We said Alashkert at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 45%. 0–0 · 17–37–45
43′We said Alashkert at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 17–38–44
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Alashkert
45′HALF-TIME Shirak 0–0 Alashkert
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Alashkert win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Draw 45%)
45′SECOND HALF Shirak 0–0 Alashkert
49′🟨 YELLOW · 45+4' Shirak
53′We said Alashkert at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 16–45–39
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Alashkert win 42%)
55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 17–39–44
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Alashkert win: 57% at kick-off, 37% now
61′We said Alashkert at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 14–51–34
68′We said Alashkert at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 12–59–29
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Shirak
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Alashkert win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
73′We said Alashkert at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 11–66–24
77′We said Alashkert at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 9–72–19
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Alashkert win: 57% at kick-off, 17% now
81′We said Alashkert at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 7–79–14
85′We said Alashkert at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 4–86–9
87′A goal for Alashkert on 86′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–4–96
87′We published Alashkert at 57%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–1 · 0–4–96
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Shirak 0–1 Alashkert
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Alashkert win: 57% at kick-off, 96% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Alashkert win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 87%)
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Alashkert win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
90′Full time, 0–1. We called Alashkert at 57% — that one lands. 0–1 · 0–0–100
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Alashkert
FTFULL TIME Shirak 0–1 Alashkert
FTShirak 0–1 Alashkert · Alashkert win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alashkert are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shirak 19%, draw 24%, Alashkert 57%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Shirak v AlashkertBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Shirak win19%

Draw24%

Alashkert win57%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueGyumri City Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shirak

Alashkert

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)

Last match: 16 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Alashkert	10	+16	19
7	Shirak	10	−1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alashkert winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 13:29 · locked at kick-off

57% The market61%

Us57%

~~Market~~61%

We make Alashkert a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shirak v Alashkert~~0.81 – 1.69

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 19~~7 v 4

~~The market · Alashkert win~~61% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alashkert win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shirak win	19%	16%	+3
Draw	24%	22%	+2
Alashkert win	57%	61%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	45%	54%	−9
Both teams to score	44%	51%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	70%	76%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	24%	33%	−9
Shirak or draw	43%	39%	+4
Shirak clean sheet	20%	–	–
Alashkert clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.8%

0123450 8.8 13.8 11.4 6.5 3.0 1 6.9 11.0 8.8 4.9 2.2 2 2.9 4.5 3.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shirak down, Alashkert across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 876 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.7% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shirak at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Alashkert away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.81 goals for Shirak, 1.69 for Alashkert. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALA 2–0 SHI · SHI 1–2 ALA · ALA 1–1 SHI · SHI 4–0 ALA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

SHIRAK

WWLLLD4–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 1–1

ALASHKERT

DWDDDW1–1 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Noah	10	+20	28
2	Pyunik Yerevan	11	+18	25
3	Ararat-Armenia	10	+10	23
4	Alashkert	10	+16	19
5	FC Urartu	11	+5	16
6	Sardarapat	11	−1	16
7	Shirak	10	−1	11
8	Ararat	11	−8	11
9	Van	11	−17	10
10	BKMA	10	−8	8
11	Syunik	10	−16	5
12	Gandzasar	11	−18	3