Sardarapat v Van prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SardarapatDrawVan

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Sardarapat 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sardarapat are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sardarapat 49%, draw 23%, Van 28%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Sardarapat v VanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Sardarapat win49%

Draw23%

Van win28%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueArmavir stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sardarapat

Van

8Days since last match7

Last match: 22 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)

Last match: 23 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Sardarapat	11	−1	16
9	Van	11	−17	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sardarapat winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Sardarapat a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sardarapat v Van~~1.77 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 3 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 10~~6 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sardarapat win	49%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Van win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Sardarapat or draw	72%	–	–
Sardarapat clean sheet	29%	–	–
Van clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.2 6.3 3.9 1 8.7 10.5 6.5 2.8 2 7.6 9.1 5.6 2.4 3 4.5 5.4 3.4 4 2.1 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sardarapat down, Van across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 877 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.8% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sardarapat at home: 1.40 scored, 2.20 conceded a game (last 5). Van away: 0.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for Sardarapat, 1.26 for Van. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~VAN 1–4 SAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 3 Sept

SARDARAPAT

LDDLWD2–4 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 2–1 · 0–0

VAN

LWLWLW0–4 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 2–5 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Noah	10	+20	28
2	Pyunik Yerevan	11	+18	25
3	Ararat-Armenia	10	+10	23
4	Alashkert	11	+17	22
5	FC Urartu	11	+5	16
6	Sardarapat	11	−1	16
7	Shirak	11	−2	11
8	Ararat	11	−8	11
9	Van	11	−17	10
10	BKMA	10	−8	8
11	Syunik	10	−16	5
12	Gandzasar	11	−18	3