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Sardarapat v FC Urartu
Sardarapat
FC UrartuPremier League · THU 22 OCT · Armavir stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said FC Urartu win at 51%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: FC Urartu 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 27–21–51
- 1′KICK-OFF Sardarapat v FC Urartu
- 45′HALF-TIME Sardarapat 0–0 FC Urartu
- 45′SECOND HALF Sardarapat 0–0 FC Urartu
- 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' FC Urartu win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
- 48′A goal for Sardarapat on 47′. 0–0 · 24–35–40
- 51′We said FC Urartu at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 24–37–39
- 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 25–34–42
- 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was FC Urartu win 39%)
- 61′We said FC Urartu at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 21–44–34
- 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' FC Urartu win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
- 69′We said FC Urartu at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 18–53–29
- 72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Sardarapat
- 74′We said FC Urartu at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 16–60–24
- 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' FC Urartu win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
- 79′We said FC Urartu at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 12–69–19
- 82′We said FC Urartu at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 10–76–14
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' FC Urartu win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
- 87′We said FC Urartu at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 6–85–9
- 89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Sardarapat
- 90′0–0 at the end. Our 51% on FC Urartu misses, and the record keeps it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
- 92′We said FC Urartu at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–93–4
- FTFULL TIME Sardarapat 0–0 FC Urartu
- FTSardarapat 0–0 FC Urartu · FC Urartu win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
FC Urartu are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Sardarapat 27%, draw 21%, FC Urartu 51%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 62%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Sardarapat win27%
FC Urartu win51%Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 16:00
RoundMatchday 11
VenueArmavir stadium
Match timeline
All events
SardarapatMIN
FC UrartuEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Sardarapat
FC Urartu
Last match: 16 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)
Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make FC Urartu a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–2.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sardarapat win | 27% | 25% | +2 |
| Draw | 21% | 25% | −4 |
| FC Urartu win | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 54% | +10 |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 57% | +5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 76% | +8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 34% | +9 |
| Sardarapat or draw | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Sardarapat clean sheet | 15% | – | – |
| FC Urartu clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2025/26No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 Aug
SARDARAPAT
FC URARTU
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 10 | +20 | 28 |
| 2 | Ararat-Armenia | 10 | +10 | 23 |
| 3 | Pyunik Yerevan | 10 | +15 | 22 |
| 4 | Alashkert | 10 | +16 | 19 |
| 5 | FC Urartu | 10 | +5 | 15 |
| 6 | Sardarapat | 10 | −1 | 15 |
| 7 | Shirak | 10 | −1 | 11 |
| 8 | Ararat | 10 | −7 | 11 |
| 9 | BKMA | 10 | −8 | 8 |
| 10 | Van | 10 | −18 | 7 |
| 11 | Syunik | 10 | −16 | 5 |
| 12 | Gandzasar | 10 | −15 | 3 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
FC Noah
Ararat-Armenia
Pyunik Yerevan
Alashkert
Shirak
Ararat
BKMA
Van
Syunik
Gandzasar