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Sardarapat v FC Urartu

Sardarapat
0–0Full time
FC Urartu

Premier League · THU 22 OCT · Armavir stadium

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 18:30
Sardarapat 0–0 FC Urartu FC URARTU WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FC Urartu win51%
The market said50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.959
The market’s Brier score0.870

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FC Urartu win at 51%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: FC Urartu 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 27–21–51
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Sardarapat v FC Urartu
  4. 45′HALF-TIME Sardarapat 0–0 FC Urartu
  5. 45′SECOND HALF Sardarapat 0–0 FC Urartu
  6. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' FC Urartu win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
  7. 48′A goal for Sardarapat on 47′. 0–0 · 24–35–40
  8. 51′We said FC Urartu at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 24–37–39
  9. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 25–34–42
  10. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was FC Urartu win 39%)
  11. 61′We said FC Urartu at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 21–44–34
  12. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' FC Urartu win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
  13. 69′We said FC Urartu at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 18–53–29
  14. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Sardarapat
  15. 74′We said FC Urartu at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 16–60–24
  16. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' FC Urartu win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
  17. 79′We said FC Urartu at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 12–69–19
  18. 82′We said FC Urartu at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 10–76–14
  19. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' FC Urartu win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
  20. 87′We said FC Urartu at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 6–85–9
  21. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Sardarapat
  22. 90′0–0 at the end. Our 51% on FC Urartu misses, and the record keeps it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
  23. 92′We said FC Urartu at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–93–4
  24. FTFULL TIME Sardarapat 0–0 FC Urartu
  25. FTSardarapat 0–0 FC Urartu · FC Urartu win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Urartu are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sardarapat 27%, draw 21%, FC Urartu 51%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Sardarapat v FC UrartuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sardarapat win27%
Draw21%
FC Urartu win51%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueArmavir stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sardarapat

FC Urartu

6Days since last match5

Last match: 16 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5FC Urartu10+515
6Sardarapat10−115

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc urartu winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
51% The market50%
Us51%
Market50%

We make FC Urartu a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sardarapat v FC Urartu1.36 – 1.99
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 AugW1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 15 v 156 v 5
The market · FC Urartu win50% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2322 OCT 15:35
Our probability · FC Urartu win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sardarapat win27%25%+2
Draw21%25%−4
FC Urartu win51%50%+1
Over 2.5 goals64%54%+10
Both teams to score62%57%+5
Over 1.5 goals84%76%+8
Over 3.5 goals43%34%+9
Sardarapat or draw49%50%−1
Sardarapat clean sheet15%––
FC Urartu clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%
0123450 3.8 7.2 6.8 4.5 2.4 1 5.2 9.3 8.8 5.7 3.0 2 3.5 6.4 5.9 3.8 3 3.0 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sardarapat down, FC Urartu across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

SARDARAPAT

LLDDLW0–2 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 2–1

FC URARTU

DLLWDW1–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 5–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1FC Noah10+2028
2Ararat-Armenia10+1023
3Pyunik Yerevan10+1522
4Alashkert10+1619
5FC Urartu10+515
6Sardarapat10−115
7Shirak10−111
8Ararat10−711
9BKMA10−88
10Van10−187
11Syunik10−165
12Gandzasar10−153

The competition's standings before kick-off.