Sardarapat v FC Noah prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Sardarapat 1–5 FC Noah FC NOAH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Noah win~~68%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.151

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.103

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Noah win at 68%.
0′Little has changed for our model: FC Noah 68% before kick-off, 71% now. 0–0 · 13–17–71
2′Little has changed for our model: FC Noah 68% before kick-off, 70% now. 0–0 · 13–17–70
22′FC Noah find the net on 13′. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–10–86
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' FC Noah
43′A goal for FC Noah on 44′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 3–11–86
43′⚽ GOAL · 44' Sardarapat 0–1 FC Noah
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Sardarapat 0–2 FC Noah
44′⚽ GOAL · 45' Sardarapat 0–2 FC Noah
45′45′ and it is 0–2: FC Noah have scored. 0–2 · 0–2–97
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' FC Noah win: 68% at kick-off, 97% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' FC Noah win: 68% at kick-off, 86% now
45′SECOND HALF Sardarapat 0–3 FC Noah
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Sardarapat 0–3 FC Noah
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' FC Noah win: 68% at kick-off, 86% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' FC Noah win: 68% at kick-off, 97% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' FC Noah win: 68% at kick-off, 97% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' FC Noah win: 68% at kick-off, 86% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' FC Noah win: 68% at kick-off, 86% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' FC Noah win: 68% at kick-off, 97% now
60′⚽ GOAL · 61' Sardarapat 0–3 FC Noah
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Sardarapat 0–3 FC Noah
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Sardarapat 0–4 FC Noah · V. Costache
82′⚽ GOAL · 83' Sardarapat 0–4 FC Noah
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Sardarapat 0–5 FC Noah · V. Costache
89′🟨 YELLOW · 90' FC Noah
93′🟨 YELLOW · 94' FC Noah
94′⚽ GOAL · 95' Sardarapat 0–5 FC Noah
96′⚽ GOAL · 96' Sardarapat 1–5 FC Noah · M. Lazetic
FTFULL TIME Sardarapat 1–5 FC Noah
FTSardarapat 1–5 FC Noah · FC Noah win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sardarapat win15%

Draw17%

FC Noah win68%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

VenueArmavir stadium

Line-ups

Sardarapat

FC Noah

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sardarapat

FC Noah

22Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Noah	8	+16	24
5	Sardarapat	8	+2	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sardarapat

Formation not confirmed

39 G. Matinyan

3 V. Doumbia

4 A. Sargsyan

5 O. Konate

10 Y. Budagyan

14 F. Seri

19 J. Quinonez

44 A. Danielyan

77 G. Abrahamyan

8 L. Petrosyan

28 H. Minasyan

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · S. Mikaelyan

80 · J. Torres

27 · J. Davtyan

13 · S. Alabi

21 · S. Galstyan

25 · C. Yann Lago

99 · A. Mkrtchyan

7 · H. Kirakosyan

29 · M. Dieng

11 · R. Potinyan

FC Noah

Formation not confirmed

29 A. Coneglian

4 S. Mambo

7 Helder Ferreira

9 M. Gonzalez

12 C. Dombila

16 S. Zdjelar

17 G. Sangare

19 H. Hambardzumyan

20 V. Costache

33 D. Sualehe

39 N. Saintini

Coach · Sandro Perkovic

Substitutes

99 · Figueira Daniel

5 · M. Avetisyan

6 · E. Boakye

8 · M. Lazetic

10 · G. Manvelyan

21 · M. Pavlovic

23 · A. Khamoyan

24 · Z. Khudaverdyan

44 · M. Jakolis

50 · V. Danielyan

57 · A. Gareginyan

98 · B. Oddei

Our number · fc noah winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

68% The market74%

Us68%

~~Market~~74%

We make FC Noah a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc noah win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sardarapat win	15%	9%	+5
Draw	17%	17%	0
FC Noah win	68%	74%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	65%	63%	+2
Both teams to score	53%	49%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	84%	81%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	44%	43%	+1
Sardarapat or draw	32%	26%	+6
Sardarapat clean sheet	10%	–	–
FC Noah clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 9.6%

0123450 3.7 8.5 9.6 7.8 5.1 2.81 3.7 7.7 8.7 6.7 4.2 2.22 3.9 4.3 3.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sardarapat down, FC Noah across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 863 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Sardarapat at home: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 3). FC Noah away: 2.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for Sardarapat, 2.46 for FC Noah. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Premier League

SARDARAPAT

DWLLDD1–1 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 1–1

FC NOAH

WWWWWW1–0 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Noah	8	+16	24
2	Ararat-Armenia	9	+9	20
3	Pyunik Yerevan	8	+10	18
4	Alashkert	9	+12	16
5	Sardarapat	8	+2	12
6	FC Urartu	8	+2	11
7	Shirak	8	+1	10
8	Ararat	8	−7	9
9	BKMA	8	−2	8
10	Van	9	−15	7
11	Gandzasar	9	−14	3
12	Syunik	8	−14	2