Pyunik Yerevan v Gandzasar prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:31

Pyunik Yerevan 3–0 Gandzasar PYUNIK YEREVAN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Pyunik Yerevan win~~82%

~~The market said~~81%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.053

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.057

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pyunik Yerevan win at 82%.
1′Much as we predicted: Pyunik Yerevan was 82% before kick-off and our model makes it 81% now. 0–0 · 81–13–6
1′KICK-OFF Pyunik Yerevan v Gandzasar
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Pyunik Yerevan win: 82% at kick-off, 72% now
34′We said Pyunik Yerevan at 82%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 70%. 0–0 · 70–22–7
36′We said Pyunik Yerevan at 82%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 69%. 0–0 · 69–23–7
45′We said Pyunik Yerevan at 82%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 64–28–8
45′HALF-TIME Pyunik Yerevan 0–0 Gandzasar
46′SECOND HALF Pyunik Yerevan 0–0 Gandzasar
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Pyunik Yerevan win: 82% at kick-off, 62% now
53′We said Pyunik Yerevan at 82%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–34–8
55′We expected about 3.3 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 64–28–8
59′We said Pyunik Yerevan at 82%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–39–7
59′Pyunik Yerevan score on 59′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 93–7–1
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Pyunik Yerevan 1–0 Gandzasar
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Pyunik Yerevan win: 82% at kick-off, 93% now
71′We published Pyunik Yerevan at 82%. Our model now makes it 94%. 1–0 · 94–6–0
75′We published Pyunik Yerevan at 82%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Pyunik Yerevan 2–0 Gandzasar
76′Pyunik Yerevan find the net on 75′. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′Pyunik Yerevan find the net on 83′. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Pyunik Yerevan 3–0 Gandzasar
87′An own goal by Gandzasar's D. Davtyan on 82′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Pyunik Yerevan 3–0 Gandzasar
FTPyunik Yerevan 3–0 Gandzasar · Pyunik Yerevan win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pyunik Yerevan are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pyunik Yerevan 82%, draw 13%, Gandzasar 6%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Pyunik Yerevan v GandzasarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Pyunik Yerevan win82%

Draw13%

Gandzasar win6%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueJunior Sport Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pyunik Yerevan

Gandzasar

5Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)

Last match: 16 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Pyunik Yerevan	10	+15	22
12	Gandzasar	10	−15	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pyunik yerevan winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 04:09 · locked at kick-off

82% The market81%

Us82%

~~Market~~81%

We make Pyunik Yerevan an 82% chance to win. The market has them at 81%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.7–0.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pyunik Yerevan v Gandzasar~~2.72 – 0.54

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 22 v 3~~3 v 12

~~The market · Pyunik Yerevan win~~81% · ours 82%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pyunik Yerevan win The market, margin stripped

Published at 81%, 82% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 81% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pyunik Yerevan win	82%	81%	+1
Draw	13%	13%	0
Gandzasar win	6%	6%	0
Over 2.5 goals	62%	63%	−1
Both teams to score	38%	41%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	83%	82%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	41%	44%	−3
Pyunik Yerevan or draw	94%	94%	0
Pyunik Yerevan clean sheet	58%	–	–
Gandzasar clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.9%

0123450 4.4 2.3 1 10.8 5.9 2 13.9 7.4 2.1 3 12.2 6.5 4 8.4 4.4 5 4.8 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Pyunik Yerevan down, Gandzasar across0–5 goals a side shown (93.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 874 Premier League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.57 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pyunik Yerevan at home: 2.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Gandzasar away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.72 goals for Pyunik Yerevan, 0.54 for Gandzasar. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~1 of 7

~~Last meetings~~GAN 0–2 PYU · PYU 3–0 GAN · PYU 2–0 GAN · GAN 0–1 PYU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 30 Aug

PYUNIK YEREVAN

DWWDWD0–0 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 5–0 · 1–1

GANDZASAR

LLLLLL0–3 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Noah	10	+20	28
2	Ararat-Armenia	10	+10	23
3	Pyunik Yerevan	10	+15	22
4	Alashkert	10	+16	19
5	FC Urartu	11	+5	16
6	Sardarapat	11	−1	16
7	Shirak	10	−1	11
8	Ararat	10	−7	11
9	BKMA	10	−8	8
10	Van	10	−18	7
11	Syunik	10	−16	5
12	Gandzasar	10	−15	3