FC Urartu v Ararat prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

FC Urartu 2–2 Ararat FC URARTU WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Urartu win~~70%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.178

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.992

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Urartu win at 70%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Urartu 70% before kick-off, 70% now. 0–0 · 70–18–12
21′12′ and it is 0–1: A. Aslanyan on the scoresheet for Ararat. 0–1 · 38–27–35
22′12′ and it is 0–1: A. Aslanyan on the scoresheet for Ararat. 0–1 · 37–27–36
42′FC Urartu ahead on 35′ through K. Ishibashi. 1–1. 1–1 · 56–31–13
45′We said FC Urartu at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 54–32–13
46′FC Urartu ahead on 35′ through K. Ishibashi. 1–1. 1–1 · 54–33–13
49′We said FC Urartu at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 52%. 1–1 · 52–35–13
69′We said FC Urartu at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 36–54–11
85′G. Lulukyan scores for FC Urartu on 79′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 96–4–0
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' FC Urartu win: 70% at kick-off, 96% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' FC Urartu win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' FC Urartu win: 70% at kick-off, 36% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was FC Urartu win 36%)
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' FC Urartu win: 70% at kick-off, 36% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was FC Urartu win 36%)
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' FC Urartu win: 70% at kick-off, 96% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' FC Urartu win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' FC Urartu win: 70% at kick-off, 96% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' FC Urartu win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' FC Urartu win: 70% at kick-off, 36% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was FC Urartu win 36%)
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' FC Urartu win: 70% at kick-off, 36% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 94' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was FC Urartu win 36%)
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' FC Urartu win: 70% at kick-off, 96% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 94' FC Urartu win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
95′88′ and it is 2–2: S. J. Bakayoko on the scoresheet for Ararat. 2–2 · 0–100–0
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 95' FC Urartu win: 70% at kick-off, 36% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 95' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was FC Urartu win 36%)
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 95' FC Urartu win: 70% at kick-off, 96% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 95' FC Urartu win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 95' FC Urartu win: 70% at kick-off, 0% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 95' Draw is now our likeliest result at 100% (was FC Urartu win 0%)
FTFULL TIME FC Urartu 2–2 Ararat
FTFC Urartu 2–2 Ararat · FC Urartu win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

FC Urartu win70%

Draw18%

Ararat win13%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

VenueUrartu Stadium

Line-ups

FC Urartu

Ararat

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

FC Urartu

Ararat

23Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	FC Urartu	8	+2	11
8	Ararat	8	−7	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Urartu

Formation not confirmed

92 A. Mishiev

10 K. Melkonyan

44 Y. Tsymbalyuk

4 A. Ghazaryan

15 V. Veremeev

5 Alef Santos

28 K. Ishibashi

77 G. Lulukyan

27 M. Velosa

21 L. Bashoyan

9 M. Rajani

Coach · Robert Arzumanyan

Substitutes

16 · N. Gishyan

33 · A. Dragojevic

3 · E. Piloyan

6 · P. Manukyan

18 · A. Bratkov

66 · Z. Dadamyan

99 · K. Ayvazyan

7 · S. Mkrtchyan

8 · N. Aghasaryan

22 · M. Mirzoyan

11 · E. Vardanyan

91 · O. van Lingen

Ararat

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Anzimati-Aboudou

3 A. Khachumyan

4 V. Samsonyan

6 O. Chukwu

7 P. Handzongo

8 P. Aleqyan

10 A. Grigoryan

17 E. Movsesyan

18 M. Berte

30 A. Aslanyan

55 G. Lima

Coach · Ricardo Dionisio

Substitutes

13 · N. Lobusov

9 · B. Hovhannisyan

11 · N. Alaverdyan

19 · S. Toure

20 · A. Meite

25 · A. Ouattara

27 · A. Vardanyan

32 · D. Ukadike

38 · M. Kante

42 · M. Fofana

77 · A. Aleksanyan

94 · S. J. Bakayoko

Our number · fc urartu winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

70% The market61%

Us70%

~~Market~~61%

We make FC Urartu a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc urartu win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Urartu win	70%	61%	+9
Draw	18%	23%	−5
Ararat win	13%	17%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	59%	56%	+3
Both teams to score	49%	53%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	77%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	37%	35%	+2
FC Urartu or draw	87%	83%	+4
FC Urartu clean sheet	45%	–	–
Ararat clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.5%

0123450 4.8 4.0 1 10.7 8.3 3.4 2 11.5 9.2 3.8 3 8.7 6.8 2.8 4 5.0 4.0 5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Urartu down, Ararat across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 863 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

18 previous meetings, 2.06 goals a meeting; 5 of 18 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Urartu at home: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ararat away: 1.50 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.28 goals for FC Urartu, 0.82 for Ararat. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

18 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.06

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 18

~~Both scored~~8 of 18

~~Last meetings~~ARA 0–1 FCU · ARA 0–1 FCU · FCU 6–0 ARA · ARA 2–4 FCU

Form · last six in Premier League

FC URARTU

WWDLLW3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 3–0

ARARAT

WLLLWW2–1 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Noah	8	+16	24
2	Ararat-Armenia	9	+9	20
3	Pyunik Yerevan	8	+10	18
4	Alashkert	9	+12	16
5	Sardarapat	8	+2	12
6	FC Urartu	8	+2	11
7	Shirak	8	+1	10
8	Ararat	8	−7	9
9	BKMA	8	−2	8
10	Van	9	−15	7
11	Gandzasar	9	−14	3
12	Syunik	8	−14	2