Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Premier League › FC Noah v Pyunik Yerevan

Back
Armenia flag

FC Noah v Pyunik Yerevan

FC Noah
1–1Full time
Pyunik Yerevan

Premier League · SUN 18 OCT · Abovyan City Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31
FC Noah 1–1 Pyunik Yerevan FC NOAH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FC Noah win52%
The market said50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.910
The market’s Brier score0.839

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 18 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FC Noah win at 52%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: FC Noah 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–24
  3. 1′KICK-OFF FC Noah v Pyunik Yerevan
  4. 21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Pyunik Yerevan
  5. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' FC Noah
  6. 32′A goal for Pyunik Yerevan on 31′. 0–0 · 45–32–23
  7. 32′We said FC Noah at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
  8. 32′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 19–26–55
  9. 32′⚽ GOAL · 31' FC Noah 0–1 Pyunik Yerevan
  10. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' FC Noah win: 52% at kick-off, 19% now
  11. 32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Pyunik Yerevan win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was FC Noah win 19%)
  12. 45′We said FC Noah at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
  13. 45′HALF-TIME FC Noah 0–1 Pyunik Yerevan
  14. 46′SECOND HALF FC Noah 0–1 Pyunik Yerevan
  15. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' FC Noah win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
  16. 51′FC Noah find the net on 51′. 0–1 · 12–26–62
  17. 51′We said FC Noah at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 38–42–21
  18. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' FC Noah 1–1 Pyunik Yerevan
  19. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' FC Noah win: 52% at kick-off, 38% now
  20. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Pyunik Yerevan win 20%)
  21. 58′We said FC Noah at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–47–19
  22. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' FC Noah win: 52% at kick-off, 32% now
  23. 66′We said FC Noah at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–54–17
  24. 72′We said FC Noah at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–62–14
  25. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' FC Noah
  26. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' FC Noah win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
  27. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' FC Noah win: 52% at kick-off, 11% now
  28. 85′We said FC Noah at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
  29. 91′We said FC Noah at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
  30. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' FC Noah win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
  31. FTFULL TIME FC Noah 1–1 Pyunik Yerevan
  32. FTFC Noah 1–1 Pyunik Yerevan · FC Noah win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Noah are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Noah 52%, draw 24%, Pyunik Yerevan 24%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on FC Noah v Pyunik YerevanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FC Noah win52%
Draw24%
Pyunik Yerevan win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueAbovyan City Stadium

Line-ups

FC Noah

Pyunik Yerevan

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Noah

Pyunik Yerevan

7Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)

Last match: 12 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1FC Noah9+2027
2Pyunik Yerevan9+1521

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Noah

Formation not confirmed

29 A. Coneglian

4 S. Mambo

7 Helder Ferreira

8 M. Lazetic

12 C. Dombila

16 S. Zdjelar

17 G. Sangare

19 H. Hambardzumyan

20 V. Costache

33 D. Sualehe

39 N. Saintini

Coach · Sandro Perkovic

Substitutes

99 · Figueira Daniel

5 · M. Avetisyan

6 · E. Boakye

9 · M. Gonzalez

10 · G. Manvelyan

21 · M. Pavlovic

23 · A. Khamoyan

24 · Z. Khudaverdyan

44 · M. Jakolis

50 · V. Danielyan

57 · A. Gareginyan

98 · B. Oddei

Pyunik Yerevan

Formation not confirmed

16 H. Avagyan

3 N. Kenourgios

15 M. Kovalenko

76 F. Almeida

5 James Santos

20 D. Hakobyan

25 D. Kulikov

9 A. Dashyan

22 S. Islamovic

8 G. Tarakhchyan

29 I. Pikis

Coach · Artak Oseyan

Substitutes

71 · S. Buchnev

88 · R. Darbinyan

12 · A. Teribe

7 · E. Malakyan

17 · V. Afyan

11 · H. Harutyunyan

99 · A. Rakhimov

37 · A. Grigoryan

14 · S. Alfred

19 · S. Metoyan

10 · I. Griffith

28 · Witi

Our number · fc noah winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:31 · locked at kick-off
52% The market50%
Us52%
Market50%

We make FC Noah a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · FC Noah v Pyunik Yerevan1.69 – 1.05
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 23 AugW6 D0 L0 · W4 D2 L0
Table places · points 27 v 211 v 2
The market · FC Noah win50% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 12 OCT 03:5918 OCT 16:15
Our probability · FC Noah win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
FC Noah win52%50%+2
Draw24%27%−3
Pyunik Yerevan win24%23%+1
Over 2.5 goals51%49%+2
Both teams to score52%53%−1
Over 1.5 goals75%72%+3
Over 3.5 goals30%29%+1
FC Noah or draw76%77%−1
FC Noah clean sheet36%––
Pyunik Yerevan clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.1%
0123450 6.8 7.0 3.6 1 11.1 11.0 5.9 2.1 2 9.1 9.2 4.9 3 5.2 5.2 2.8 4 2.3 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+FC Noah down, Pyunik Yerevan across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.56 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsPYU 0–0 FCN · FCN 0–0 PYU · FCN 2–2 PYU · PYU 1–2 FCN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 23 Aug

FC NOAH

WWWWWW1–0 · 4–0 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 5–1

PYUNIK YEREVAN

WDWWDW2–1 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 5–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1FC Noah9+2027
2Pyunik Yerevan9+1521
3Ararat-Armenia9+920
4Alashkert10+1619
5FC Urartu10+515
6Sardarapat10−115
7Shirak10−111
8Ararat10−711
9BKMA9−78
10Van10−187
11Syunik10−165
12Gandzasar10−153

The competition's standings before kick-off.