BKMA v Ararat-Armenia prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

BKMA 0–1 Ararat-Armenia ARARAT-ARMENIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ararat-Armenia win~~63%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.206

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.106

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ararat-Armenia win at 63%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ararat-Armenia 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 17–21–63
1′KICK-OFF BKMA v Ararat-Armenia
10′A goal for Ararat-Armenia on 10′. 0–0 · 17–22–61
11′We said Ararat-Armenia at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 0–1 · 5–12–83
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' BKMA 0–1 Ararat-Armenia
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Ararat-Armenia win: 63% at kick-off, 83% now
14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Ararat-Armenia
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Ararat-Armenia
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 4–13–83
45′HALF-TIME BKMA 0–1 Ararat-Armenia
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' BKMA
56′We said Ararat-Armenia at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
60′SECOND HALF BKMA 0–1 Ararat-Armenia
75′We said Ararat-Armenia at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Ararat-Armenia win: 63% at kick-off, 93% now
84′We said Ararat-Armenia at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
90′0–1 at the end. Our 63% on Ararat-Armenia comes in. 0–1 · 0–0–100
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' BKMA
92′Ararat-Armenia are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 0–2–98
92′🟥 RED CARD · 90+2' Ararat-Armenia
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' BKMA
FTFULL TIME BKMA 0–1 Ararat-Armenia
FTBKMA 0–1 Ararat-Armenia · Ararat-Armenia win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ararat-Armenia are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: BKMA 17%, draw 20%, Ararat-Armenia 63%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on BKMA v Ararat-ArmeniaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

BKMA win17%

Draw20%

Ararat-Armenia win63%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueFootball Academy Stadium

Line-ups

BKMA

Ararat-Armenia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

BKMA

Ararat-Armenia

6Days since last match3

Last match: 12 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Ararat-Armenia	9	+9	20
9	BKMA	9	−7	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

BKMA

Formation not confirmed

22 H. Ghazaryan

2 A. Khachatryan

6 A. Petrosyan

3 A. Movsesyan

20 Z. Ashikyan

13 H. Sargsyan

47 H. Manukyan

11 D. Davtyan

14 P. Krmzyan

10 D. Harutyunyan

9 A. Petrosyan

Coach · Armen Gyulbudaghyants

Substitutes

21 · D. Dokhoyan

12 · A. Davidov

4 · S. Harutyunyan

81 · H. Ghukasyan

5 · K. Hovakimyan

43 · A. Manukyan

8 · S. Movsisyan

19 · S. Kirakosyan

30 · K. Edigarian

50 · G. Meloyan

Ararat-Armenia

Formation not confirmed

98 Joao Bravim

47 A. Malis

43 B. R. Wilson Valdez

19 K. Muradyan

14 B. Pereira

95 Franca Carlos

6 M. Ayvazyan

70 Benny

90 P. Ayongo

10 A. Ambartsumyan

9 A. Eloyan

Coach · Tulipa

Substitutes

71 · A. Martirosyan

1 · A. Nersesyan

2 · H. Oliveira

5 · Luis Felipe

7 · Z. Shaghoyan

8 · J. A. Balanta

16 · E. Grigoryan

17 · M. Carlier

20 · A. Tera

25 · A. Ndour

77 · A. Serobyan

91 · Sandro Lima

Our number · ararat-armenia winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:31 · locked at kick-off

63% The market74%

Us63%

~~Market~~74%

We make Ararat-Armenia a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · BKMA v Ararat-Armenia~~0.91 – 2.05

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 20~~9 v 3

~~The market · Ararat-Armenia win~~74% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ararat-Armenia win The market, margin stripped

Published at 61%, 63% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BKMA win	17%	9%	+8
Draw	20%	17%	+3
Ararat-Armenia win	63%	74%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	56%	62%	−6
Both teams to score	51%	49%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	81%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	42%	−8
BKMA or draw	37%	26%	+11
BKMA clean sheet	14%	–	–
Ararat-Armenia clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.5 10.8 10.6 7.3 3.8 1 5.0 9.5 9.4 6.4 3.3 2 2.3 4.4 4.3 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BKMA down, Ararat-Armenia across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 871 Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.3% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.70 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BKMA at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ararat-Armenia away: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.91 goals for BKMA, 2.05 for Ararat-Armenia. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.70

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BKM 2–3 ARA · ARA 2–1 BKM · BKM 2–2 ARA · ARA 4–0 BKM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 23 Aug

BKMA

LWWLDL0–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–5

ARARAT-ARMENIA

DLWWWD1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Noah	9	+20	27
2	Pyunik Yerevan	9	+15	21
3	Ararat-Armenia	9	+9	20
4	Alashkert	10	+16	19
5	FC Urartu	10	+5	15
6	Sardarapat	10	−1	15
7	Shirak	10	−1	11
8	Ararat	10	−7	11
9	BKMA	9	−7	8
10	Van	10	−18	7
11	Syunik	10	−16	5
12	Gandzasar	10	−15	3