Ararat v Alashkert prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AraratDrawAlashkert

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Alashkert 61%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alashkert are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ararat 18%, draw 21%, Alashkert 61%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Ararat v AlashkertBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Ararat win18%

Draw21%

Alashkert win61%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueVazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ararat

Alashkert

8Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)

Last match: 24 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Alashkert	11	+17	22
8	Ararat	11	−8	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alashkert winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Alashkert a 61% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–2.0, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ararat v Alashkert~~0.89 – 1.97

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 3 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 22~~8 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ararat win	18%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Alashkert win	61%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Ararat or draw	39%	–	–
Ararat clean sheet	15%	–	–
Alashkert clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.2 11.3 10.7 7.1 3.7 1 5.5 9.9 9.2 5.9 3.0 2 2.6 4.5 4.1 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ararat down, Alashkert across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 877 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.8% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ararat at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Alashkert away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.89 goals for Ararat, 1.97 for Alashkert. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALA 3–0 ARA · ALA 2–0 ARA · ARA 2–3 ALA · ALA 3–0 ARA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 3 Sept

ARARAT

LWWDDL0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

ALASHKERT

WDDDWW4–0 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Noah	10	+20	28
2	Pyunik Yerevan	11	+18	25
3	Ararat-Armenia	10	+10	23
4	Alashkert	11	+17	22
5	FC Urartu	11	+5	16
6	Sardarapat	11	−1	16
7	Shirak	11	−2	11
8	Ararat	11	−8	11
9	Van	11	−17	10
10	BKMA	10	−8	8
11	Syunik	10	−16	5
12	Gandzasar	11	−18	3