Ararat-Armenia v FC Noah prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ararat-ArmeniaDrawFC Noah

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · FC Noah 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Noah are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ararat-Armenia 33%, draw 25%, FC Noah 43%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Ararat-Armenia v FC NoahBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Ararat-Armenia win33%

Draw25%

FC Noah win43%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueFootball Academy Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ararat-Armenia

FC Noah

4Days since last match8

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc noah winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make FC Noah a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ararat-Armenia v FC Noah~~1.31 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 30 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 23 v 28~~3 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ararat-Armenia win	33%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
FC Noah win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Ararat-Armenia or draw	57%	–	–
Ararat-Armenia clean sheet	23%	–	–
FC Noah clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.3 9.2 6.9 3.6 1 7.8 11.3 8.5 4.4 2 5.1 7.4 5.5 2.8 3 2.3 3.3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ararat-Armenia down, FC Noah across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 877 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.8% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ararat-Armenia at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). FC Noah away: 3.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Ararat-Armenia, 1.53 for FC Noah. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ARA 0–4 FCN · FCN 0–0 ARA · ARA 0–1 FCN · FCN 1–1 ARA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 30 Aug

ARARAT-ARMENIA

LWWWDW1–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

FC NOAH

WWWWWD4–0 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Noah	10	+20	28
2	Pyunik Yerevan	11	+18	25
3	Ararat-Armenia	10	+10	23
4	Alashkert	11	+17	22
5	FC Urartu	11	+5	16
6	Sardarapat	11	−1	16
7	Shirak	11	−2	11
8	Ararat	11	−8	11
9	Van	11	−17	10
10	BKMA	10	−8	8
11	Syunik	10	−16	5
12	Gandzasar	11	−18	3