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Ararat-Armenia v Alashkert

Ararat-Armenia

1–1Full time

Alashkert

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Football Academy Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Ararat-Armenia 1–1 Alashkert ARARAT-ARMENIA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ararat-Armenia win~~51%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.908

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.818

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ararat-Armenia win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ararat-Armenia 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–25
1′KICK-OFF Ararat-Armenia v Alashkert
6′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Alashkert
12′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Ararat-Armenia
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Ararat-Armenia 1–0 Alashkert
32′⚽ GOAL · 33' Ararat-Armenia 1–0 Alashkert
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Ararat-Armenia 1–1 Alashkert
42′33′ and it is 1–1: Alashkert have scored. 1–1 · 41–37–23
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Ararat-Armenia win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Ararat-Armenia win: 51% at kick-off, 47% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Ararat-Armenia win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Ararat-Armenia win: 51% at kick-off, 47% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Ararat-Armenia win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ararat-Armenia win: 51% at kick-off, 47% now
45′HALF-TIME Ararat-Armenia 1–1 Alashkert
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ararat-Armenia win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′SECOND HALF Ararat-Armenia 1–1 Alashkert
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Alashkert
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Ararat-Armenia win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Ararat-Armenia win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Ararat-Armenia win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
50′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Alashkert
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Ararat-Armenia win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Ararat-Armenia win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Ararat-Armenia win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
57′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Ararat-Armenia
88′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Ararat-Armenia
88′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Alashkert
FTFULL TIME Ararat-Armenia 1–1 Alashkert
FTArarat-Armenia 1–1 Alashkert · Ararat-Armenia win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ararat-Armenia win51%

Draw24%

Alashkert win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

Venue · Football Academy Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Ararat-Armenia

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Nersesyan

2 H. Oliveira

43 B. R. Wilson Valdez

47 A. Malis

14 B. Pereira

19 K. Muradyan

8 J. A. Balanta

77 A. Serobyan

70 Benny

11 Z. Banjaqui

91 Sandro Lima

Coach · Tulipa

Substitutes

71 · A. Martirosyan

98 · Joao Bravim

5 · Luis Felipe

6 · M. Ayvazyan

7 · Z. Shaghoyan

9 · A. Eloyan

10 · A. Ambartsumyan

17 · M. Carlier

20 · A. Tera

44 · D. Petrosyan

90 · P. Ayongo

95 · Franca Carlos

Alashkert

Formation not confirmed

99 I. Sesay

5 D. Terteryan

4 Y. Matyukhin

3 Cezar

55 H. Hakobyan

88 Rafael Jesus

8 E. Piloyan

10 O. Farayola

7 K. Nalbandyan

14 D. J. Massoumou

11 M. Toure

Coach · Vahe Gevorgyan

Substitutes

24 · A. Beglaryan

31 · D. Polyanskiy

22 · R. Hakobyan

6 · H. Adebayo

18 · I. D. Nduka

77 · D. Aghbalyan

23 · S. Gigolyan

15 · A. Sadoyan

17 · J. Sabobo

20 · D. Togola

21 · J. Granado

19 · P. Ejike

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ararat-Armenia

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Nersesyan

2 H. Oliveira

43 B. R. Wilson Valdez

47 A. Malis

14 B. Pereira

19 K. Muradyan

8 J. A. Balanta

77 A. Serobyan

70 Benny

11 Z. Banjaqui

91 Sandro Lima

Coach · Tulipa

Substitutes

71 · A. Martirosyan

98 · Joao Bravim

5 · Luis Felipe

6 · M. Ayvazyan

7 · Z. Shaghoyan

9 · A. Eloyan

10 · A. Ambartsumyan

17 · M. Carlier

20 · A. Tera

44 · D. Petrosyan

90 · P. Ayongo

95 · Franca Carlos

Alashkert

Formation not confirmed

99 I. Sesay

5 D. Terteryan

4 Y. Matyukhin

3 Cezar

55 H. Hakobyan

88 Rafael Jesus

8 E. Piloyan

10 O. Farayola

7 K. Nalbandyan

14 D. J. Massoumou

11 M. Toure

Coach · Vahe Gevorgyan

Substitutes

24 · A. Beglaryan

31 · D. Polyanskiy

22 · R. Hakobyan

6 · H. Adebayo

18 · I. D. Nduka

77 · D. Aghbalyan

23 · S. Gigolyan

15 · A. Sadoyan

17 · J. Sabobo

20 · D. Togola

21 · J. Granado

19 · P. Ejike

Our number · ararat-armenia winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

51% The market45%

Us51%

~~Market~~45%

We make Ararat-Armenia a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ararat-armenia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ararat-Armenia win	51%	45%	+6
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Alashkert win	25%	29%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	51%	52%	−1
Both teams to score	52%	56%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	75%	0
Over 3.5 goals	30%	31%	−1
Ararat-Armenia or draw	75%	71%	+3
Ararat-Armenia clean sheet	35%	–	–
Alashkert clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.0%

0123450 6.6 7.4 3.9 1 11.0 10.9 6.0 2.3 2 8.8 9.1 4.9 3 5.0 5.1 2.8 4 2.2 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ararat-Armenia down, Alashkert across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 861 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

18 previous meetings, 2.61 goals a meeting; 10 of 18 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ararat-Armenia at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Alashkert away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Ararat-Armenia, 1.09 for Alashkert. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

18 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.61

~~Over 2.5~~10 of 18

~~Both scored~~12 of 18

~~Last meetings~~ARA 1–1 ALA · ALA 1–0 ARA · ARA 2–1 ALA · ARA 3–0 ALA

Form · last six in Premier League

ARARAT-ARMENIA

WDLWWW2–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 3–1

ALASHKERT

LWDWDD0–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Noah	8	+16	24
2	Ararat-Armenia	8	+9	19
3	Pyunik Yerevan	8	+10	18
4	Alashkert	8	+12	15
5	Sardarapat	8	+2	12
6	FC Urartu	8	+2	11
7	Shirak	8	+1	10
8	Ararat	8	−7	9
9	BKMA	8	−2	8
10	Van	8	−17	4
11	Gandzasar	8	−12	3
12	Syunik	8	−14	2