Alashkert v Syunik prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 16:59

Alashkert 5–1 Syunik ALASHKERT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alashkert win~~67%

~~The market said~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.161

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.086

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alashkert win at 67%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Alashkert 67% before kick-off, 69% now. 0–0 · 69–19–12
1′KICK-OFF Alashkert v Syunik
4′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Syunik
8′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Alashkert
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Syunik
28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Syunik
29′A goal for Alashkert on 29′. 0–0 · 60–27–13
30′We said Alashkert at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–10–3
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 87–10–3
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Alashkert 1–0 Syunik
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Alashkert win: 67% at kick-off, 87% now
38′Alashkert find the net on 37′. 1–0 · 87–10–2
39′We said Alashkert at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
39′⚽ GOAL · 37' Alashkert 2–0 Syunik
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Alashkert win: 67% at kick-off, 98% now
45′A goal for Alashkert on 45′. 2–0 · 98–2–0
45′HALF-TIME Alashkert 3–0 Syunik
46′We said Alashkert at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
46′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
46′⚽ GOAL · 45' Alashkert 3–0 Syunik
46′SECOND HALF Alashkert 3–0 Syunik
69′Alashkert find the net on 68′. 3–0 · 100–0–0
69′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Alashkert 4–0 Syunik
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Syunik
86′A goal for Alashkert on 85′. 4–0 · 100–0–0
87′Syunik find the net on 87′. 5–0 · 100–0–0
87′5 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
87′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 85' Alashkert 5–0 Syunik
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Alashkert 5–1 Syunik
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Syunik
FTFULL TIME Alashkert 5–1 Syunik
FTAlashkert 5–1 Syunik · Alashkert win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alashkert are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alashkert 67%, draw 19%, Syunik 13%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Alashkert v SyunikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Alashkert win67%

Draw19%

Syunik win13%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueAlashkert Stadium

Line-ups

Alashkert

Syunik

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alashkert

Syunik

6Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)

Last match: 12 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Alashkert	9	+12	16
11	Syunik	9	−12	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Alashkert

Formation not confirmed

24 A. Beglaryan

55 H. Hakobyan

3 Cezar

4 Y. Matyukhin

22 R. Hakobyan

88 Rafael Jesus

7 K. Nalbandyan

8 E. Piloyan

14 D. J. Massoumou

10 O. Farayola

11 M. Toure

Coach · Vahe Gevorgyan

Substitutes

99 · I. Sesay

31 · D. Polyanskiy

1 · V. Chatunts

6 · H. Adebayo

18 · I. D. Nduka

77 · D. Aghbalyan

23 · S. Gigolyan

15 · A. Sadoyan

17 · J. Sabobo

20 · D. Togola

21 · J. Granado

19 · P. Ejike

Syunik

Formation not confirmed

72 D. Sa

20 P. Poghikyan

22 A. Melikyan

55 A. Litviakov

4 A. Souassi

77 M. Silva

33 V. Hayrapetyan

23 K. Enning

17 E. Soghomonyan

31 E. Odinakachi

30 G. Kalu

Coach · Igor Picusceac

Substitutes

10 · S. Arakelyan

6 · E. Vardanyan

14 · A. Kwanye

27 · S. Harutyunyan

11 · E. Grigoryan

90 · A. Ghukasyan

13 · A. Karapetyan

26 · S. Sargsyan

Our number · alashkert winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 13 Oct 05:31 · locked at kick-off

67% The market76%

Us67%

~~Market~~76%

We make Alashkert a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alashkert v Syunik~~2.08 – 0.71

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 20 Aug~~W2 D4 L0 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 5~~4 v 11

~~The market · Alashkert win~~76% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alashkert win The market, margin stripped

Published at 69%, 67% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 76% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alashkert win	67%	76%	−9
Draw	19%	15%	+4
Syunik win	13%	8%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	52%	67%	−15
Both teams to score	43%	50%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	75%	84%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	30%	47%	−17
Alashkert or draw	87%	92%	−5
Alashkert clean sheet	50%	–	–
Syunik clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 6.7 5.0 1 13.0 8.9 3.4 2 12.7 8.6 3.2 3 8.8 5.8 2.1 4 4.9 3.1 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Alashkert down, Syunik across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 867 Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Alashkert at home: 3.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Syunik away: 0.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.08 goals for Alashkert, 0.71 for Syunik. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 20 Aug

ALASHKERT

WDWDDD3–0 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–1

SYUNIK

DLDLLW1–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Noah	9	+20	27
2	Pyunik Yerevan	9	+15	21
3	Ararat-Armenia	9	+9	20
4	Alashkert	9	+12	16
5	FC Urartu	9	+2	12
6	Sardarapat	9	−2	12
7	Shirak	9	−1	10
8	Ararat	9	−7	10
9	BKMA	9	−7	8
10	Van	9	−15	7
11	Syunik	9	−12	5
12	Gandzasar	9	−14	3