Shirak II v BKMA II prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 15:01

Shirak II 3–4 BKMA II BKMA II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said BKMA II win~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.081

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Shirak II v BKMA IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 12:01 · locked at kick-off

Shirak II win10%

Draw14%

BKMA II win77%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 12:30

VenueArnar stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Shirak II

BKMA II

5Days since last match23

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	BKMA II	8	10	16
9	Shirak II	7	-5	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bkma ii winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 12:01 · locked at kick-off

77% The market–

Us77%

We make BKMA II a 77% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–2.9, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shirak II v BKMA II~~0.90 – 2.87

~~Last six in First League~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 16~~9 v 3

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bkma ii win

Published at 78%, 77% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shirak II win	10%	–	–
Draw	14%	–	–
BKMA II win	77%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Shirak II or draw	23%	–	–
Shirak II clean sheet	6%	–	–
BKMA II clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 9.5%

0123450 2.6 7.2 9.5 8.9 6.4 3.81 2.4 5.9 8.2 7.6 5.4 3.22 2.7 3.7 3.5 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shirak II down, BKMA II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 958 First League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.2% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 4.78 goals a meeting; 7 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shirak II at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). BKMA II away: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.90 goals for Shirak II, 2.87 for BKMA II. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.78

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~SHI 3–3 BKM · BKM 8–0 SHI · BKM 5–0 SHI · SHI 4–5 BKM

Form · last six in First League

SHIRAK II

LDWLWW0–4 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 2–1

BKMA II

WLWWLD3–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 1–4 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olympia Yerevan	8	16	22
2	Andranik	9	13	19
3	BKMA II	8	10	16
4	Bentonit Ijevan	8	9	15
5	Araks Ararat	8	6	15
6	Lernayin Artsakh	8	1	12
7	Pyunik II	9	-2	11
8	Mika	9	-2	11
9	Shirak II	7	-5	10
10	Banants II	8	-6	8
11	Ararat II	6	-3	6
12	Noah II	9	-15	6
13	Ararat-Armenia II	9	-10	5
14	Sardarapat 2	8	-12	3