Mika v Araks Ararat prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 15:01

Mika 2–0 Araks Ararat ARAKS ARARAT WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Araks Ararat win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.798

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Araks Ararat are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mika 29%, draw 23%, Araks Ararat 48%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Mika v Araks AraratBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Mika win29%

Draw23%

Araks Ararat win48%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueMIKA Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mika

Araks Ararat

8Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · First League (Armenia)

Last match: 13 Oct · First League (Armenia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Araks Ararat	8	+6	15
8	Mika	9	−2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · araks ararat winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Araks Ararat a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mika v Araks Ararat~~1.26 – 1.72

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 18 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 15~~8 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mika win	29%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Araks Ararat win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Mika or draw	52%	–	–
Mika clean sheet	19%	–	–
Araks Ararat clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.3 9.2 7.5 4.3 1 6.8 10.5 9.0 5.2 2.3 2 4.1 6.7 5.6 3.2 3 2.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mika down, Araks Ararat across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 963 First League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.9% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mika at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Araks Ararat away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Mika, 1.72 for Araks Ararat. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ARA 3–1 MIK · MIK 1–1 ARA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 18 Aug

MIKA

WDDLWL3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–2

ARAKS ARARAT

LDWDWW1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olympia Yerevan	8	+16	22
2	Andranik	10	+14	22
3	BKMA II	9	+11	19
4	Bentonit Ijevan	8	+9	15
5	Araks Ararat	8	+6	15
6	Lernayin Artsakh	9	−3	12
7	Pyunik II	9	−2	11
8	Mika	9	−2	11
9	Shirak II	8	−6	10
10	Ararat II	8	+1	10
11	Banants II	10	−9	8
12	Ararat-Armenia II	10	−10	6
13	Noah II	9	−15	6
14	Sardarapat 2	9	−10	6