Lernayin Artsakh v Shirak II prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 15:01

Lernayin Artsakh 5–0 Shirak II LERNAYIN ARTSAKH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lernayin Artsakh win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.405

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lernayin Artsakh are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lernayin Artsakh 48%, draw 20%, Shirak II 32%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Lernayin Artsakh v Shirak IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Lernayin Artsakh win48%

Draw20%

Shirak II win32%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lernayin Artsakh

Shirak II

6Days since last match6

Last match: 14 Oct · First League (Armenia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Lernayin Artsakh	9	−3	12
9	Shirak II	8	−6	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lernayin artsakh winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 15 Oct 04:39 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Lernayin Artsakh a 48% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.7, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lernayin Artsakh v Shirak II~~2.16 – 1.72

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 15 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 10~~6 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lernayin Artsakh win

Published at 52%, 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lernayin Artsakh win	48%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Shirak II win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
Lernayin Artsakh or draw	68%	–	–
Lernayin Artsakh clean sheet	19%	–	–
Shirak II clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.0%

0123450 2.2 4.0 3.2 1 5.0 7.5 6.3 3.6 2 5.0 8.0 6.6 3.8 3 3.6 5.7 4.7 2.7 4 3.1 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lernayin Artsakh down, Shirak II across0–5 goals a side shown (95.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 963 First League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.9% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lernayin Artsakh at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Shirak II away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.16 goals for Lernayin Artsakh, 1.72 for Shirak II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LER 1–2 SHI · SHI 0–1 LER · SHI 1–1 LER · LER 5–3 SHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 15 Aug

LERNAYIN ARTSAKH

WLWWLL5–0 · 3–4 · 4–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–5

SHIRAK II

DWLWWL1–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olympia Yerevan	8	+16	22
2	Andranik	10	+14	22
3	BKMA II	9	+11	19
4	Bentonit Ijevan	8	+9	15
5	Araks Ararat	8	+6	15
6	Lernayin Artsakh	9	−3	12
7	Pyunik II	9	−2	11
8	Mika	9	−2	11
9	Shirak II	8	−6	10
10	Ararat II	8	+1	10
11	Banants II	10	−9	8
12	Ararat-Armenia II	10	−10	6
13	Noah II	9	−15	6
14	Sardarapat 2	9	−10	6