BKMA II v Ararat II prediction · First League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

BKMA II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: BKMA II 72%, draw 15%, Ararat II 13%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on BKMA II v Ararat IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

BKMA II win72%

Draw15%

Ararat II win13%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueVagharshapat Football Academy

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

BKMA II

Ararat II

15Days since last match10

Last match: 14 Oct · First League (Armenia)

Last match: 19 Oct · First League (Armenia)

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	BKMA II	9	+11	19
10	Ararat II	8	+1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bkma ii winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 23 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off

72% The market–

Us72%

We make BKMA II a 72% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · BKMA II v Ararat II~~2.80 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 19 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 10~~3 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · BKMA II win

Published at 74%, 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BKMA II win	72%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
Ararat II win	13%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
BKMA II or draw	87%	–	–
BKMA II clean sheet	35%	–	–
Ararat II clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.3 2.6 1 6.3 6.2 3.4 2 8.2 8.4 4.5 3 7.4 7.6 4.1 4 5.2 5.3 2.9 5 3.0 3.1

under 2% 5% 12%+BKMA II down, Ararat II across0–5 goals a side shown (92.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 967 First League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.6% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.78 goals a meeting; 7 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BKMA II at home: 2.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ararat II away: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.80 goals for BKMA II, 1.07 for Ararat II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.78

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~BKM 4–0 ARA · ARA 2–4 BKM · ARA 0–2 BKM · BKM 6–0 ARA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 19 Aug

BKMA II

LWWLDW2–3 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 4–3

ARARAT II

WLWWWD3–0 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 5–1 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olympia Yerevan	9	+16	23
2	Andranik	10	+14	22
3	BKMA II	9	+11	19
4	Bentonit Ijevan	9	+10	18
5	Araks Ararat	9	+4	15
6	Lernayin Artsakh	10	+2	15
7	Mika	10	0	14
8	Pyunik II	10	−2	12
9	Shirak II	9	−11	10
10	Ararat II	8	+1	10
11	Sardarapat 2	10	−7	9
12	Banants II	10	−9	8
13	Noah II	9	−15	6
14	Ararat-Armenia II	10	−14	3