Bentonit Ijevan v Sardarapat 2 prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 15:01

Bentonit Ijevan 3–2 Sardarapat 2 BENTONIT IJEVAN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bentonit Ijevan win~~59%

~~The market said~~81%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.248

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.057

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bentonit Ijevan are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bentonit Ijevan 59%, draw 19%, Sardarapat 2 21%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Bentonit Ijevan v Sardarapat 2Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Bentonit Ijevan win59%

Draw19%

Sardarapat 2 win21%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bentonit Ijevan

Sardarapat 2

13Days since last match7

Last match: 8 Oct · First League (Armenia)

Last match: 14 Oct · First League (Armenia)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Bentonit Ijevan	8	+9	15
11	Sardarapat 2	9	−6	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bentonit ijevan winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

59% The market81%

Us59%

~~Market~~81%

We make Bentonit Ijevan a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 81%. We are 22 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bentonit Ijevan v Sardarapat 2~~2.24 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 19 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 15 v 9~~4 v 11

~~The market · Bentonit Ijevan win~~81% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bentonit Ijevan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 81% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bentonit Ijevan win	59%	81%	−22
Draw	19%	12%	+7
Sardarapat 2 win	21%	7%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	65%	76%	−11
Both teams to score	60%	57%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	56%	−12
Bentonit Ijevan or draw	79%	93%	−14
Bentonit Ijevan clean sheet	31%	–	–
Sardarapat 2 clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.6 4.5 2.7 1 7.6 8.5 5.2 2.2 2 7.8 8.9 5.4 2.3 3 5.7 6.4 3.8 4 3.4 3.7 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bentonit Ijevan down, Sardarapat 2 across0–5 goals a side shown (95.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 966 First League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.1% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Bentonit Ijevan at home: 2.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sardarapat 2 away: 1.00 scored, 2.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.24 goals for Bentonit Ijevan, 1.21 for Sardarapat 2. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 19 Aug

BENTONIT IJEVAN

DLWWWD3–3 · 0–2 · 4–3 · 5–3 · 2–1 · 1–1

SARDARAPAT 2

LLLLLW0–1 · 0–4 · 2–4 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olympia Yerevan	9	+16	23
2	Andranik	10	+14	22
3	BKMA II	9	+11	19
4	Bentonit Ijevan	8	+9	15
5	Araks Ararat	9	+4	15
6	Lernayin Artsakh	10	+2	15
7	Mika	10	0	14
8	Pyunik II	10	−2	12
9	Shirak II	9	−11	10
10	Ararat II	8	+1	10
11	Sardarapat 2	9	−6	9
12	Banants II	10	−9	8
13	Noah II	9	−15	6
14	Ararat-Armenia II	10	−14	3