Ararat II v Lernayin Artsakh prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 15:01

Ararat II 5–1 Lernayin Artsakh ARARAT II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ararat II win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.438

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Ararat II v Lernayin ArtsakhBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 12:01 · locked at kick-off

Ararat II win46%

Draw21%

Lernayin Artsakh win33%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 12:30

VenueSports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ararat II

Lernayin Artsakh

22Days since last match6

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Lernayin Artsakh	8	1	12
11	Ararat II	6	-3	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ararat ii winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 12:01 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Ararat II a 46% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ararat II v Lernayin Artsakh~~1.96 – 1.60

~~Last six in First League~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 12~~11 v 6

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ararat II win	46%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Lernayin Artsakh win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	–	–
Ararat II or draw	67%	–	–
Ararat II clean sheet	21%	–	–
Lernayin Artsakh clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.7%

0123450 3.0 5.0 3.8 2.1 1 6.0 8.7 6.9 3.7 2 5.5 8.3 6.5 3.5 3 3.6 5.4 4.2 2.3 4 2.7 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ararat II down, Lernayin Artsakh across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 958 First League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.2% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.17 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ararat II at home: 0.83 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). Lernayin Artsakh away: 1.33 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for Ararat II, 1.60 for Lernayin Artsakh. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ARA 0–1 LER · LER 2–1 ARA · LER 1–1 ARA · ARA 1–0 LER

Form · last six in First League

ARARAT II

LLWLWW1–3 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 2–1

LERNAYIN ARTSAKH

LWLWWL1–3 · 5–0 · 3–4 · 4–2 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olympia Yerevan	8	16	22
2	Andranik	9	13	19
3	BKMA II	8	10	16
4	Bentonit Ijevan	8	9	15
5	Araks Ararat	8	6	15
6	Lernayin Artsakh	8	1	12
7	Pyunik II	9	-2	11
8	Mika	9	-2	11
9	Shirak II	7	-5	10
10	Banants II	8	-6	8
11	Ararat II	6	-3	6
12	Noah II	9	-15	6
13	Ararat-Armenia II	9	-10	5
14	Sardarapat 2	8	-12	3