Ararat-Armenia II v Ararat II prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 15:01

Ararat-Armenia II 3–3 Ararat II ARARAT II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ararat II win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.937

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ararat II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ararat-Armenia II 36%, draw 21%, Ararat II 43%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Ararat-Armenia II v Ararat IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Ararat-Armenia II win36%

Draw21%

Ararat II win43%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ararat-Armenia II

Ararat II

6Days since last match5

Last match: 13 Oct · First League (Armenia)

Last match: 14 Oct · First League (Armenia)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Ararat II	7	+1	9
14	Ararat-Armenia II	9	−10	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ararat ii winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 15 Oct 04:39 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Ararat II a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ararat-Armenia II v Ararat II~~1.74 – 1.90

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 19 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 9~~14 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ararat II win

Published at 39%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ararat-Armenia II win	36%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Ararat II win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
Ararat-Armenia II or draw	57%	–	–
Ararat-Armenia II clean sheet	16%	–	–
Ararat II clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.8 5.4 4.8 3.0 1 5.0 8.5 7.9 5.0 2.4 2 4.1 7.3 6.7 4.2 2.1 3 2.4 4.2 3.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ararat-Armenia II down, Ararat II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 961 First League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.0% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 4.33 goals a meeting; 8 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ararat-Armenia II at home: 1.83 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ararat II away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Ararat-Armenia II, 1.90 for Ararat II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~4.33

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 9

~~Both scored~~7 of 9

~~Last meetings~~Ararat-Armenia II 3–0 Ararat II · Ararat II 3–1 Ararat-Armenia II · Ararat II 0–1 Ararat-Armenia II · Ararat-Armenia II 1–4 Ararat II

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 19 Aug

ARARAT-ARMENIA II

DDLWLL1–1 · 2–2 · 3–5 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 1–3

ARARAT II

LWLWWW1–2 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olympia Yerevan	8	+16	22
2	Andranik	9	+13	19
3	BKMA II	9	+11	19
4	Bentonit Ijevan	8	+9	15
5	Araks Ararat	8	+6	15
6	Lernayin Artsakh	9	−3	12
7	Pyunik II	9	−2	11
8	Mika	9	−2	11
9	Shirak II	8	−6	10
10	Ararat II	7	+1	9
11	Banants II	9	−8	8
12	Noah II	9	−15	6
13	Sardarapat 2	9	−10	6
14	Ararat-Armenia II	9	−10	5