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Model 1.2

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Van v Gandzasar

Van
11:00Upcoming
Gandzasar

Cup · MON 26 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VanDrawGandzasar
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00
Before kick-off · Match result · Van 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Van are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Van 54%, draw 24%, Gandzasar 22%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Van v GandzasarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Van win54%
Draw24%
Gandzasar win22%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 11:00

RoundRound of 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Van

Gandzasar

3Days since last match3

Last match: 23 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)

Last match: 23 Oct · Premier League (Armenia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · van winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:26 · locked at kick-off
54% The market–
Us54%

We make Van a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Van v Gandzasar1.73 – 0.99

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 20 OCT 00:0125 OCT 02:51
Our probability · Van win

Published at 53%, 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Van win54%––
Draw24%––
Gandzasar win22%––
Over 2.5 goals51%––
Both teams to score51%––
Over 1.5 goals75%––
Over 3.5 goals29%––
Van or draw78%––
Van clean sheet38%––
Gandzasar clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.5%
0123450 7.0 6.7 3.3 1 11.5 11.0 5.4 2 9.8 9.3 4.6 3 5.7 5.4 2.7 4 2.5 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Van down, Gandzasar across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.71
Over 2.53 of 7
Both scored3 of 7
Last meetingsVAN 2–0 GAN · GAN 0–1 VAN · VAN 2–1 GAN · GAN 1–0 VAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season

VAN

No matches in our record yet.

GANDZASAR

No matches in our record yet.