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Model 1.2

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Mika v Araks Ararat

Mika
09:00Upcoming
Araks Ararat

Cup · SUN 25 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MikaDrawAraks Ararat
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 09:00
Before kick-off · Match result · Araks Ararat 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Araks Ararat are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mika 32%, draw 24%, Araks Ararat 44%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Mika v Araks AraratBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Mika win32%
Draw24%
Araks Ararat win44%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 09:00

RoundRound of 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mika

Araks Ararat

5Days since last match5

Last match: 20 Oct · First League (Armenia)

Last match: 20 Oct · First League (Armenia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · araks ararat winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 21 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off
44% The market–
Us44%

We make Araks Ararat a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Mika v Araks Ararat1.31 – 1.58
Form · Cup this season · since 24 AugW0 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 19 OCT 01:3725 OCT 01:05
Our probability · Araks Ararat win

Published at 48%, 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Mika win32%––
Draw24%––
Araks Ararat win44%––
Over 2.5 goals55%––
Both teams to score57%––
Over 1.5 goals77%––
Over 3.5 goals33%––
Mika or draw56%––
Mika clean sheet21%––
Araks Ararat clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%
0123450 5.8 9.1 6.9 3.7 1 7.6 11.0 8.7 4.6 2 4.8 7.2 5.6 3.0 3 2.2 3.2 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Mika down, Araks Ararat across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26
Goals a meeting2.67
Over 2.51 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsMIK 2–0 ARA · ARA 3–1 MIK · MIK 1–1 ARA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 24 Aug

MIKA

D2–2

ARAKS ARARAT

W4–2