SAT Moreno v Defensores Glew prediction · Torneo Promocional Amateur

After 90 minutesGraded 20 Oct 03:22

SAT Moreno 3–3 Defensores Glew DEFENSORES GLEW WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Defensores Glew win~~47%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.877

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.680

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 3–3, the score after 90 minutes. It was decided on penalties.

Corrected on 20 Oct: this match was first graded on a score of 3–4; the score is now 3–3 and the grades above follow it.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Defensores Glew are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SAT Moreno 29%, draw 24%, Defensores Glew 47%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on SAT Moreno v Defensores GlewBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

SAT Moreno win29%

Draw24%

Defensores Glew win47%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundFinal

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SAT Moreno

Defensores Glew

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Torneo Promocional Amateur

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · defensores glew winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market41%

Us47%

~~Market~~41%

We make Defensores Glew a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SAT Moreno v Defensores Glew~~1.03 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Torneo Promocional Amateur this season · since 7 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 33 v 32~~1 v 2

~~The market · Defensores Glew win~~41% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Defensores Glew win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SAT Moreno win	29%	25%	+4
Draw	24%	33%	−9
Defensores Glew win	47%	41%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	44%	42%	+2
Both teams to score	46%	47%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	68%	67%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	24%	−1
SAT Moreno or draw	53%	59%	−6
SAT Moreno clean sheet	25%	–	–
Defensores Glew clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.6%

0123450 8.0 13.6 8.6 4.1 1 10.3 11.1 8.5 4.1 2 4.7 6.2 4.3 2.1 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SAT Moreno down, Defensores Glew across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 385 Torneo Promocional Amateur matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Torneo Promocional Amateur matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.4% of games this season, across 141 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.14 goals a meeting; 1 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SAT Moreno at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Defensores Glew away: 3.00 scored, 0.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for SAT Moreno, 1.42 for Defensores Glew. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.14

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~DEF 1–1 SAT · DEF 2–0 SAT · SAT 1–0 DEF · DEF 2–4 SAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Torneo Promocional Amateur this season · since 7 Sept

SAT MORENO

WLLDDD3–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

DEFENSORES GLEW

WWDWLD3–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	SAT Moreno	14	+15	33
2	Defensores Glew	14	+29	32
3	Deportivo Metalurgico	14	+22	32
4	Barrancas UMET	16	+8	31
5	Uribelarrea	16	+8	29
6	Ezeiza	16	+1	26
7	Buenos Aires City	16	+5	25
8	Nautico Hacoaj	14	+13	24
9	Belgrano Zarate	16	+1	22
10	Alumni Los Hornos	16	−3	18
11	Control Orientado	16	−5	18
12	Estrella de Berisso	14	−6	15
13	Everton La Plata	16	−7	14
14	Las Mandarinas	16	−8	14
15	Atletico Pilar	14	−13	9
16	Juventud de Bernal	14	−31	8
17	Provincial	14	−29	7