Defensores Glew v SAT Moreno prediction · Torneo Promocional Amateur

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Defensores Glew 1–1 SAT Moreno DEFENSORES GLEW WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Defensores Glew win~~49%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.900

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.800

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Defensores Glew win49%

Draw24%

SAT Moreno win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Defensores Glew

SAT Moreno

7Days since last match6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Defensores Glew	18	+32	39
5	SAT Moreno	18	+12	35

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · defensores glew winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

49% The market48%

Us49%

~~Market~~48%

We make Defensores Glew a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · defensores glew win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Defensores Glew win	49%	48%	+1
Draw	24%	28%	−5
SAT Moreno win	28%	24%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	45%	43%	+2
Both teams to score	46%	48%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	69%	67%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	23%	+2
Defensores Glew or draw	72%	76%	−4
Defensores Glew clean sheet	37%	–	–
SAT Moreno clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%

0123450 7.6 9.9 4.3 1 13.6 10.8 6.0 2.1 2 8.9 8.6 4.3 3 4.5 4.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Defensores Glew down, SAT Moreno across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 384 Torneo Promocional Amateur matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Torneo Promocional Amateur matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.7% of games this season, across 140 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.17 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Defensores Glew at home: 2.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). SAT Moreno away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Defensores Glew, 1.01 for SAT Moreno. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~DEF 2–0 SAT · SAT 1–0 DEF · DEF 2–4 SAT · SAT 1–0 DEF

Form · last six in Torneo Promocional Amateur

DEFENSORES GLEW

WWWDWL2–0 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

SAT MORENO

LWLLDD1–4 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Metalurgico	18	+27	40
2	Defensores Glew	18	+32	39
3	Barrancas UMET	18	+11	37
4	Uribelarrea	20	+13	36
5	SAT Moreno	18	+12	35
6	Buenos Aires City	18	+2	26
7	Ezeiza	18	−4	26
8	Nautico Hacoaj	16	+8	25
9	Belgrano Zarate	16	+1	22
10	Alumni Los Hornos	16	−3	18
11	Control Orientado	16	−5	18
12	Estrella de Berisso	14	−6	15
13	Everton La Plata	16	−7	14
14	Las Mandarinas	16	−8	14
15	Atletico Pilar	14	−13	9
16	Juventud de Bernal	14	−31	8
17	Provincial	14	−29	7