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Villa Mitre v Douglas Haig

Villa Mitre

19:00Upcoming

Douglas Haig

Torneo Federal A · SUN 25 OCT · Estadio El Fortin

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Villa MitreDrawDouglas Haig

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Villa Mitre 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Villa Mitre are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Villa Mitre 49%, draw 32%, Douglas Haig 19%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 31%.

The AI’s read on Villa Mitre v Douglas HaigBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Villa Mitre win49%

Draw32%

Douglas Haig win19%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 19:00

RoundRound of 16

VenueEstadio El Fortin

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Villa Mitre

Douglas Haig

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Torneo Federal A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Douglas Haig	18	+7	31
16	Villa Mitre	16	+6	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · villa mitre winFirst published 19 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Villa Mitre a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Villa Mitre v Douglas Haig~~1.16 – 0.60

~~Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 23 v 31~~16 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villa Mitre win	49%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Douglas Haig win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	26%	–	–
Both teams to score	31%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	53%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
Villa Mitre or draw	81%	–	–
Villa Mitre clean sheet	55%	–	–
Douglas Haig clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 19.4%

0123450 17.8 9.9 3.1 1 19.4 12.2 3.6 2 11.5 6.8 2.1 3 4.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villa Mitre down, Douglas Haig across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,204 Torneo Federal A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Torneo Federal A matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.7% of games this season, across 498 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021.

Home and away form

Villa Mitre at home: 1.50 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Douglas Haig away: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Villa Mitre, 0.60 for Douglas Haig. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Torneo Federal A this season · since 22 Aug

VILLA MITRE

DWLDDW0–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

DOUGLAS HAIG

WLWDDW3–0 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Olimpo Bahia Blanca	16	+9	31
2	Douglas Haig	18	+7	31
3	Sportivo Belgrano	18	+12	30
4	San Martin Formosa	16	+6	30
5	Alvarado	16	+12	27
6	Gimnasia Chivilcoy	18	+5	27
7	Defensores de Belgrano VR	18	+4	27
8	Kimberley Mar del Plata	16	+6	26
9	Bartolomé Mitre	16	+6	26
10	Sol de América	16	+5	26
11	Juventud Antoniana	16	+8	25
12	Cipolletti	16	+4	25
13	Sarmiento de La Banda	16	+2	25
14	9 de Julio Rafaela	18	+1	25
15	Sportivo Las Parejas	18	−1	24
16	Villa Mitre	16	+6	23
17	Argentino Monte Maíz	16	+4	23
18	Atenas	16	−1	23
19	Huracan Las Heras	16	−2	23
20	Atletico Escobar	18	−8	22
21	Fundacion Amigos	16	+3	21
22	Deportivo Rincon	16	−3	19
23	San Martín Mendoza	16	−4	19
24	Defensores de Vilelas	16	−5	19
25	Independiente De Chivilcoy	18	−7	19
26	El Linqueño	18	−7	19
27	Costa Brava	16	−1	18
28	Sol de Mayo	16	−3	18
29	Boca Unidos	16	−6	18
30	Germinal de Rawson	16	−7	18
31	Juventud Unida Univ.	16	0	17
32	Tucuman Central	16	−5	17
33	Gimnasia Concepción	18	−6	17
34	Guillermo Brown	16	−7	17
35	Sarmiento Resistencia	16	−11	15
36	Santamarina	16	−8	13
37	Circulo Deportivo	16	−8	13