Villa Mitre v Costa Brava

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Villa Mitre win at 51%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Villa Mitre was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–33–16
3. 1′KICK-OFF Villa Mitre v Costa Brava
4. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Villa Mitre win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
5. 36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Villa Mitre win 40%)
6. 38′We said Villa Mitre at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–46–14
7. 45′HALF-TIME Villa Mitre 0–0 Costa Brava
8. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 21' Villa Mitre · On: Cristian Valencia · Off: thiago perez
9. 46′A red card for Costa Brava on 45′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 36–51–14
10. 46′🟥 RED CARD · 45' Costa Brava
11. 46′SECOND HALF Villa Mitre 0–0 Costa Brava
12. 49′We said Villa Mitre at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–53–13
13. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Villa Mitre
14. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Villa Mitre win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
15. 58′We said Villa Mitre at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–59–12
16. 65′We said Villa Mitre at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–66–10
17. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Villa Mitre win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
18. 72′We said Villa Mitre at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–73–8
19. 77′We said Villa Mitre at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–79–6
20. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Villa Mitre win: 51% at kick-off, 10% now
21. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Costa Brava
22. 82′We said Villa Mitre at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–4
23. 85′A goal for Villa Mitre on 83′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 97–3–0
24. 85′We published Villa Mitre at 51%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
25. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Costa Brava
26. 85′⚽ GOAL · 83' Villa Mitre 1–0 Costa Brava
27. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Villa Mitre win: 51% at kick-off, 97% now
28. 85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Villa Mitre win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
29. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Villa Mitre 2–0 Costa Brava
30. 86′We published Villa Mitre at 51%. Our model now makes it 97%. 1–0 · 97–3–0
31. 87′A goal for Villa Mitre on 85′. 1–0 · 98–2–0
32. 87′GOAL DISALLOWED · 87' Villa Mitre
33. 88′Tomas Ibarra scores for Villa Mitre on 84′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 98–2–0
34. 94′Goals are coming at about the 1.7 we expected. 2–0 · 100–0–0
35. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Villa Mitre 2–0 Costa Brava
36. 96′Villa Mitre score on 90′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
37. FTFULL TIME Villa Mitre 2–0 Costa Brava
38. FTVilla Mitre 2–0 Costa Brava · Villa Mitre win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.